Mobile voice service revenues are on a trajectory to reach their peak in
2010, after which they are likely to start declining, according to the
latest forecasts from ABI Research.
Vice-president for forecasting Jake Saunders comments, “Mobile voice has
had a meteoric rise since digital cellular networks such as GSM were
deployed in 1992. ABI Research forecasts annual mobile voice revenues to
reach $580 billion in 2010. From 2011 on, rising subscriber saturation
will increasingly erode mobile voice revenues, not just in developed
markets but also in a number of emerging markets. By 2014, mobile voice
revenues will have contracted by 9.6%.”
While mobile operators have received a substantial boost from
value-added services such as messaging and Mobile Internet, competition
is squeezing margins for a variety of services and carriers. Total
mobile data services should generate $169 million in 2009 and will grow
at a CAGR of 9% until 2014.
By the end of 2009 the declines in annual average revenue per user
(ARPU) will have been felt most severely in Asia-Pacific (-8.7% to $105)
and Africa (-7.8% to $134). ARPU in 2009 in North America will have
contracted, but only by -0.6% to $526). Mobile Internet revenue ($52)
from use of smartphones, netbooks, etc. will help to prop up overall
service revenue for the region.
Wireless capital expenditure, on the other hand, shrank 5% in 2009 to
$132.5 billion. The global recession was widely felt in all parts of the
world. Saunders notes, “As handset sales plummeted in 4Q-2009, end-users
did not return their handsets nor did they put their handsets aside and
refuse to use them. They did, however, try to cap tariff plan usage.
Carriers therefore held up a number of CAPEX-related projects to free up
some cashflow.”
As the economy has stabilized in 2H-2009, carriers have started to
resume capital expenditure. Key areas of spending are core network and
radio access network upgrades to support higher data throughput.
ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of
trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From
offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team
of experts advise thousands of decision makers through 27 research and
advisory services. Est.1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com,
or call +1.516.624.2500.
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