Richard Davies wrote: The UK has a good crop of technology pioneers in cloud computing - for example ElasticHosts, FlexiScale, Flexiant, OnApp - and also some strong government initiatives such as G-Cloud.
We will have to see whether this kind of technical leadership converts into swift mass-market adoption or not.
Russia Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and
strategists, corporate analysts, information technology associations,
government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts
and competitive intelligence on Russia's information technology industry.
Market Overview
The Russian IT market is expected to start to recover in 2010 from a
double-digit contraction in spending on IT products and services in
2009. As the Russian market was buffeted by strong economic headwinds
throughout last year, BMI projected that IT spending would contract by
21% in 2009 and not return to 2008 levels until 2011.
A contraction in PC sales in H109 continued the trend of Q408, with
leading indicator data including consumption and investment showing
little sign of improvement through Q309. Stronger sales of computers in
the 2009 New Year holiday season suggested, however, that the market had
entered the recovery phase and the pace of real GDP contraction narrowed
considerably in Q409. In 2010, the Russian IT market is forecast to grow
to US$15.0bn, up substantially on 2009 but still short of the 2008
pre-crisis level, which will not be reached until 2011. Growing computer
penetration, government ICT projects and immense potential for IT
spending by Russia's traditional industries could drive an increase in
IT spending per capita from around US$107 in 2010 to US$190 by 2014.
Industry Developments
In December 2009, the Russian governments Expert Council of the Federal
Antimonopoly Service (SAS Russia) on Developing Competition in
Information Technologies convened a meeting on identifying problems in
the IT sector. The council set up a working group to summarise ideas and
proposals on the development of the IT sector, which were expected to be
presented to the government in early 2010. The government has suggested
that it will consider new measures if necessary to drive Russian
government bodies to achieve key e-government targets. In a strongly
worded speech in August 2009, President Dmitry Medvedev said that
progress on e-government projects had been a disgrace and threatened to
introduce financial penalties for government bodies that failed to meet
targets. The presidents address echoed similar remarks made in May 2009
by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who also called for urgent drafting of
a new e-government programme for the period up to 2015.
Competitive Landscape
In 2009, the rapid expansion of Russia's fast-growing retail sector
continued to drive spending by major local players such as OKey and the
Detsky Mir group. Detsky Mir, Russians largest retailer of children's
goods, announced in January 2010 that it had implemented Oracle retail
applications to support its strategic growth plans for long-term
expansion. In November 2009, Microsoft said that it was considering
launching its own retail presence in Russian in 2010. The outlets would
be opened in Russia's largest cities and would be used more for brand
development rather than as a new sales channel. Microsoft hoped that
sales of its Windows 7 operating system, launched in October 2009, would
boost local sales. Fellow US IT giant HP admitted that it had been hit
hard by the Russian market contraction in 2009. The firm said that it
expected 2009 annual output decline to be about 40% in Russia. However,
HP said that it had outperformed the Russian IT market in the second
quarter and that it expected to restore revenues to pre-crisis levels by
2011.
Hardware
BMI forecasts a return to growth for the Russian computer hardware
market in 2010, following a sharp contraction in PC sales in 2009.
According to BMI projections, the computer hardware market is forecast
to recover to US$8.1bn in 2010, up from 2009s US$7.1bn but still short
of 2008 levels, which will not be reached until 2012.
Data from Citibank suggested that retail spending on computers and
software was up 55% in December 2009. Hardware spending will have
support from a number of fundamental drivers including low PC
penetration, rising incomes, government IT initiatives and industrial
reform in many sectors. PC market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for
the next five years is projected to be in the region of 14%, with
spending reaching about US$11.3bn by 2014.
Software
The domestic software market is projected at around US$3.1bn in 2010.
Spending on software is forecast to return to positive growth territory,
after demand was hit in 2009 by the much sharper decline in PC sales.
Going forward, the market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% to
US$5.3bn by 2014, making Russia potentially one of the most significant
global software market opportunities.
The domestic software market is forecast at around US$3.1bn in 2009.
Although Russia has the fifth highest software piracy rate in the world
(87%), BMI expects that government efforts to strengthen intellectual
property protection will see this fall closer to average Eastern
European levels, boosting the market. There are, unsurprisingly,
regional disparities, with Moscow some way ahead of its closest rival St
Petersburg in terms of enterprise resource planning (ERP) deployments.
Services
BMI projects an IT services market value of US$3.8bn in 2010, which will
represent some recovery from 2009 when the market experienced a sharp
contraction. The IT services opportunity is forecast to grow to around
US$7.2bn by 2014 as the IT market gradually recovers from recent
external shocks. The broader use of ICT in government and other sectors
will ensure an upward market trajectory in the medium term. Systems
integration is the largest IT services component, with as much as
one-third of segment revenues and, together with implementation of
hardware and software, probably account for about half of all IT
services. However, more value-added services such as consulting and
applications development are growing fast. Outsourcing is also on the
rise, although below the levels in some other Central and Eastern
European (CEE) countries.
E-Readiness
The governments ambitious policy is that every locality in Russia should
be provided with fixed-line telephony infrastructure, mobile phone
coverage and internet by 2015. According to the Ministry of IT and
Communications target, every populated area in the country should be
provided irrespective of its economic weight and population. IT and
Communications Minister Reiman has described the digital divide as a
very challenging issue for all CIS countries and one that the Russian
government was seeking to overcome.
Internet usage is forecast to see robust growth over the remainder of
our forecast period. However, the current tight credit markets are
limiting the ease with which broadband operators are able to source much
needed funds to invest in broadband network proliferation. Coupled with
the economic uncertainty, this is creating a troublesome environment for
operators to plan their investment decisions. That said, growth will
still be strong just not meeting its full potential.
Competition between the incumbents holdings and alternative operators
such as Comstar-UTS, Golden Telecom and Net By Net will continue to
drive the sector forward. Continued expansion of networks, both fixed
and wireless, should see penetration increasing in the regions, while
uptake remains strong in the more urbanised areas. Alternative
technologies such as WiMAX and fibre will also play their part in
expanding the market, by introducing competition as well as offering
services over a wider area.