|By PR Newswire||
|December 3, 2012 03:28 AM EST||
LONDON, December 3, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
- A Greek exit and profound restructuring could be the least painful scenario for saving the Eurozone
- Latest e-book from Saxo Capital Markets argues Eurozone needs to reach rock-bottom before recovery
The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and inhabitants end up in such a desperate situation that they realise the only way out is through radical change, says Saxo Capital Markets.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Analyst at Saxo, comments:
"We are now nearing the point of no return for Europe. Time is running out for Europe as 2012 became an issue of letting the central banks do the dirty job of keeping the tail-risk away though Draghi's put and general easy monetary policy."
"A Greek exit may sound like a frightening scenario, but profoundly restructuring the Eurozone may be less painful than a slow Japanese style death, with deflation, massive fiscal deficits, negative real-rates, housing prices lower than 30 years ago and a stock market valuation at less than 50% of its peak."
In "The Euro in crisis", the third chapter of the e-book in Saxo Capital Markets' FX Debates Series, Saxo analyses the unfolding of the Eurozone crisis as a three-stage process, following its evolution through phases of denial, protest and, ultimately, change.
Steen Jakobsen explains:
"First, in the denial phase we have fiscal stimulus. Then in the protest phase we have changes of political figureheads where there is no real change, but with some milder fiscal stimulus underneath. Then, ultimately, we move to a serious mandate for change. The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and citizens, prompted by social unrest, realise and accept that the only way out is through radical change."
About social unrest Steen Jakobsen comments:
"It's very likely that someone who is getting their salary pummeled, their disposable income pummeled, and their purchasing power pummeled gets upset because, with the high stock market, the richest 1% and the corporations are making all the money. History shows that when the source of tension becomes too big, things can blow up. That's where we are at today."
Saxo Capital Markets sees three potential outcomes to the Eurozone debt crisis:
• Meeting of the Cardinals - 20%probability
• Extend-and-pretend Squared - 60% probability
• Doom-and-Gloom - 20% probability
Meeting of the Cardinals
The Meeting of the Cardinals (MoC) will be the only orderly solution dictated by rational and practical solutions, where some countries need to leave the Euro, whether permanently or for a tempory period.
"Here, the guinea pig will most likely be Greece. This will force Club Med to the table and make them accept further loss of sovereignty on fiscal and monetary policy, most likely in a German model where the European Court of Justice becomes the highest-ranking authority.
"The MoC scenario will likely lead to a short-term negative market reaction and a deep one-to-three year recession. However, this could also trigger the final phase of the three-phase crisis model: Mandate for Change. Inside the mandate for change there is a V-shaped recovery when reforms are initiated from the low point. For investors, the MoC is the best solution as it will lead to several years of prosperity amid better debt-to-equity, more realistic future expectations, and a public sector under control."
According to Jakobsen, the more likely scenario, however, is that Eurozone policy markets will continue to use delay tactics.
"The extend-and-pretend forever solution is about buying time - more of the same patch work solutions, slowly forcing Europe towards fiscal consolidation, not changing the Maastricht Treaty but the European Central Bank (ECB) charter to allow it to be lender-of-last-resort. This is the final phase of 'Maximum Intervention' - bigger and bigger direct support on liquidity and no impact on the solvency. This outcome is a vicious circle as every time the major central banks start the printing press, people's purchasing power diminishes." explains Jakobsen.
Under this scenario there are no good solutions to this crisis. Markets would re-test their 2009 lows and there will be a deep rooted discontentment with politics and the banking system, which could lead to social unrest and worse.
Steen Jakobsen concludes:
"The magnitude of this debt crisis is far larger than the market realises. The idea that it's merely a question of Germany paying is not only naïve, but also impossible. They cannot and they should not pay - and nor is the ECB the only solution to this debt crisis. There is only one solution: the system must fail and both the Euro and the Eurozone need to be redefined."
"The Euro in crisis" is the third part of Saxo's e-book, #FXdebates - Trading Insights from our Top Analysts, which focuses on trends in currency movements and pairings, the challenges affecting FX traders and advice on key trading strategies. The other articles in the #FXdebates series will focus on:
- The US Dollar (published)
- Yuan Diplomacy (published)
- Gold - Just another currency?
- Currency Wars: Battle Of The Weakest
The #FXdebates series of articles will be published over the next three months, leading the way to an event in February 2012 in collaboration with Bloomberg LINK.
For more information please see: http://uk.saxomarkets.com/fxdebates
Follow the debates via twitter: https://twitter.com/SaxoMarketsUK
About Saxo Capital Markets
Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group, an international financial services group specialising in trading and investment across global financial markets. Saxo Bank has operated in the UK since March 2006, initially as a branch of Saxo Bank A/S and since 1 January, 2012 as Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited.
Saxo Capital Markets UK offers private investors online trading and investment in FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, and online wealth management for Funds, Shares, ETFs, Certificates and Bonds. Saxo Capital Markets UK also offers online trading services to a broad institutional client base including Hedge Funds, Introducing Brokers and Money Managers through our award-winning trading platform SaxoTrader, SaxoWebTrader and SaxoMobileTrader and Saxo's B2B/API services.
Additionally a large base of Banks, Brokers, Asset and Money managers, utilise our award winning white label solutions, in order to provide their clients with access to all or some of our trading platforms and associated liquidity.
Find out more about FX Trading opportunities with Saxo Capital Markets.
Uriel Alvarado Cancino, Chief Public Relations and Marketing Officer, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2026, [email protected]
Nicholle De Beer, Public Relations and Marketing Manager, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2024, [email protected]
+44(0)20-7360-4900, [email protected]
SYS-CON Events announced today Isomorphic Software, the global leader in high-end, web-based business applications, will exhibit at SYS-CON's DevOps Summit 2015 New York, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Isomorphic Software is the global leader in high-end, web-based business applications. We develop, market, and support the SmartClient & Smart GWT HTML5/Ajax platform, combining the productivity and performance of traditional desktop software ...
May. 4, 2015 07:30 PM EDT Reads: 574
DevOps Summit, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 17th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long developmen...
May. 4, 2015 07:15 PM EDT Reads: 494
DevOps Summit 2015 New York, co-located with the 16th International Cloud Expo - to be held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY - announces that it is now accepting Keynote Proposals. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long development cycles that produce software that is obsolete...
May. 4, 2015 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 4,300
Application metrics, logs, and business KPIs are a goldmine. It’s easy to get started with the ELK stack (Elasticsearch, Logstash and Kibana) – you can see lots of people coming up with impressive dashboards, in less than a day, with no previous experience. Going from proof-of-concept to production tends to be a bit more difficult, unfortunately, and it tends to gobble up our attention, time, and money. In his session at DevOps Summit, Otis Gospodnetić, co-author of Lucene in Action and founder...
May. 4, 2015 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,076
While Docker continues to be the darling of startups, enterprises and IT innovators around the world, networking continues to be a real mess. Indeed, managing the interaction between Docker containers and networks has always been fraught with complications. Without automation in networking, the vision of running Docker at scale and letting IT run the same apps unchanged on the laptop and in the data center or for any cloud cannot be realized.
May. 4, 2015 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 603
“The year of the cloud – we have no idea when it's really happening but we think it's happening now. For those technology providers like Zentera that are helping enterprises move to the cloud - it's been fun to watch," noted Mike Loftus, VP Product Management and Marketing at Zentera Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
May. 4, 2015 06:45 PM EDT Reads: 3,375
“We are a managed services company. We have taken the key aspects of the cloud and the purposed data center and merged the two together and launched the Purposed Cloud about 18–24 months ago," explained Chetan Patwardhan, CEO of Stratogent, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
May. 4, 2015 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,891
SYS-CON Events announced today that CenturyLink, Inc., a leader in the network services market, has been named “Platinum Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. CenturyLink is the third largest telecommunications company in the United States and is recognized as a leader in the network services market by technology industry analyst firms. The company is a global leader in cloud infrastructure and ...
May. 4, 2015 04:15 PM EDT Reads: 1,133
Database apps on mobile devices shouldn't stop working when there's limited or no network connectivity. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Bradley Holt, a Developer Advocate for IBM Cloudant, will discuss how to bring data stored in a cloud database to the edge of the network (and back again), whenever an Internet connection is available. He will demonstrate techniques for replicating cloud databases with mobile devices in order to build offline-enabled mobile apps that can provide a better,...
May. 4, 2015 04:00 PM EDT Reads: 974
In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Simone Brunozzi, VP and Chief Technologist of Cloud Services at VMware, will review the changes that the cloud computing industry has gone through over the last five years and share insights into what the next five will bring. He will chronicle the challenges enterprise companies are facing as they move to the public cloud. He will delve into the “Hybrid Cloud” space and explain why every CIO should consider ‘hybrid cloud’ as part of their future strategy to a...
May. 4, 2015 03:46 PM EDT Reads: 605
"Blue Box has been around for 10-11 years, and last year we launched Blue Box Cloud. We like the term 'Private Cloud as a Service' because we think that embodies what we are launching as a product - it's a managed hosted private cloud," explained Giles Frith, Vice President of Customer Operations at Blue Box, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
May. 4, 2015 02:30 PM EDT Reads: 3,620
Puppet Labs on Wednesday released the DevOps Salary Report, based on salary data gathered from Puppet Labs' industry-recognized State of DevOps Report. The data confirms that market demand for DevOps skills is growing, and that DevOps engineers are among the highest paid IT practitioners today. That's because IT organizations today are grappling with how to be more agile and responsive to the business, while maintaining the stability of their infrastructure. DevOps practices, such as continuous ...
May. 4, 2015 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,201
"SOASTA built the concept of cloud testing in 2008. It's grown from rather meager beginnings to where now we are provisioning hundreds of thousands of servers on a daily basis on behalf of customers around the world to test their applications," explained Tom Lounibos, CEO of SOASTA, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
May. 4, 2015 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 3,450
Docker is becoming very popular--we are seeing every major private and public cloud vendor racing to adopt it. It promises portability and interoperability, and is quickly becoming the currency of the Cloud. In his session at DevOps Summit, Bart Copeland, CEO of ActiveState, discussed why Docker is so important to the future of the cloud, but will also take a step back and show that Docker is actually only one piece of the puzzle. Copeland will outline the bigger picture of where Docker fits a...
May. 4, 2015 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 5,235
“This win means a great deal to us because it is decided by the readers – the people who understand how use of our technology enables new insights that drive the business,” said Matt Davies, senior director, EMEA marketing, Splunk. “Splunk Enterprise enables organizations to improve service levels, reduce operations costs, mitigate security risks, enhance DevOps collaboration, create new product and service offerings and obtain deeper insight into customer behavior. Being named Best Business App...
May. 4, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,869