|By PR Newswire||
|December 13, 2012 09:51 AM EST||
CHERRY HILL, N.J. and PORTLAND, Maine, Dec. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The main obstacle standing in the path of faster U.S. economic growth is a strong headwind blowing in from fiscal restraint, according to a report released today by TD Economics (www.td.com/economics), an affiliate of TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank®.
"Without fiscal drag, the U.S. economy would be headed for a growth trajectory in the 3-4% range in 2013," says TD Chief Economist Craig Alexander. "The worst of the consumer deleveraging cycle and its dampening effect on economic growth appear to be over. But just as the private sector is set to provide a welcomed tailwind to the economy, it will be met with worsening cross winds from public sector restraint."
Alexander acknowledges that the result is likely to be a pace of economic growth that is little changed from the past year.
TD Economics forecasts economic growth to average 1.9% in 2013 – down from an estimated 2.2% in 2012. However, by the second half of next year, clearer fiscal policy should lead to resurgence in private demand, placing the economy on a stronger footing with 3.0% growth in 2014.
Still waiting for a path around the fiscal cliff
With a few weeks to go before deep spending cuts and tax hikes arrive and hamper economic growth, a deal to avoid them between the White House and Congress has yet to be reached.
"The fact that businesses are pulling back on investing, despite healthy balance sheets and record low interest rates, is a sign that fiscal cliff concerns have already taken a toll on economic growth," notes Alexander.
TD Economics estimates that if all tax hikes and spending cuts are allowed to take place as scheduled, it would cut 3.0 percentage points from real GDP in 2013.
"Our forecast assumes a deal will be made that avoids plunging the U.S. economy back into a recession in the first half of 2013," says Alexander. "However, spending restraint and tax increases will still cut economic growth by 1.3 percentage points in 2013,"
Alexander warns that until there is more clarity on the political front, the fiscal situation represents the largest source of economic uncertainty.
As housing rebounds, faster growth is waiting in the wings
The constraint on growth posed by fiscal policy comes amid signs that housing has entered a self-sustaining recovery. Home prices have risen consistently through 2012 while delinquencies and foreclosures have fallen.
The rise in home prices has been substantial – prices are up 5.0% from year-ago levels – and appears sustainable. The fall in construction activity over the last several years has cleared the supply overhang and allowed rising demand to pull up prices.
"A strengthening housing market recovery alongside rebounding consumer credit markets is a good reason to expect acceleration in economic growth," says Alexander. "The past vicious cycle in the housing market is turning into a virtuous one, giving every reason to believe that a more familiar recovery will spring free."
The Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to support growth
The housing market has also been the focus of the Federal Reserve, whose latest round of quantitative easing has focused on purchases of mortgage-backed securities.
"The Fed has pulled out all the stops to support the recovery in housing and offset some of the drag from fiscal policy," notes Alexander. "But, as several Fed members emphasized, monetary policy can provide some relief, but it can't single-handedly offset the fiscal headwind."
"A clearer path to fiscal consolidation alongside continuation of accommodative monetary policy will be the necessary cocktail for stronger economic growth in 2014," concludes Alexander.
TD Economics provides analysis of global economic performance and forecasting, and is an affiliate of TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank®.
The complete findings of the TD Economics report are available online at http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/qef/qefdec12_us.pdf
SOURCE TD Bank
The 5th International DevOps Summit, co-located with 17th International Cloud Expo – being held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the...
Jun. 2, 2015 11:15 PM EDT Reads: 4,302
"Desktop as a Service is emerging as a very big trend. One of the big influencers of this – for Esri – is that we have a large user base that uses virtualization and they are looking at Desktop as a Service right now," explained John Meza, Product Engineer at Esri, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Jun. 2, 2015 11:00 PM EDT Reads: 4,427
SYS-CON Events announced today that the "First Containers & Microservices Conference" will take place June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City. The “Second Containers & Microservices Conference” will take place November 3-5, 2015, at Santa Clara Convention Center, Santa Clara, CA. Containers and microservices have become topics of intense interest throughout the cloud developer and enterprise IT communities.
Jun. 2, 2015 10:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,083
The 17th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. 17th International Cloud Expo, to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, APM, APIs, Microservices, Security, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding bu...
Jun. 2, 2015 10:15 PM EDT Reads: 4,433
The 4th International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 17th International Cloud Expo - to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA - announces that its Call for Papers is open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago.
Jun. 2, 2015 10:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,016
"In our world there's a lot of cloud. Our focus is to help companies, who are bogged down by the enormousness of the cloud and infrastructure, to really go out there and monetize the cloud," explained Ian Khan, Global Strategic Positioning & Brand Manager at Solgenia, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Jun. 2, 2015 10:00 PM EDT Reads: 3,407
ThingsExpo New York is offering a limited time FREE "Expo Plus" registration option in New York. On site registration price of $1,95 will be set to 'free' for delegates who register during special offer. To take advantage of this opportunity, attendees can use the coupon code, and secure their registration to attend all keynotes, ThingsExpo sessions, expo floor, and SYS-CON.tv power panels. Special FREE registration givess access to all DevOps, Containers and Microservices sessions as well. Regi...
Jun. 2, 2015 10:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,156
SYS-CON Events announced today that SUSE, a pioneer in open source software, will exhibit at SYS-CON's DevOps Summit 2015 New York, which will take place June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. SUSE provides reliable, interoperable Linux, cloud infrastructure and storage solutions that give enterprises greater control and flexibility. More than 20 years of engineering excellence, exceptional service and an unrivaled partner ecosystem power the products and support that help ...
Jun. 2, 2015 09:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,241
“In the past year we've seen a lot of stabilization of WebRTC. You can now use it in production with a far greater degree of certainty. A lot of the real developments in the past year have been in things like the data channel, which will enable a whole new type of application," explained Peter Dunkley, Technical Director at Acision, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Jun. 2, 2015 09:15 PM EDT Reads: 5,643
"We help companies that are using a lot of Software as a Service. We help companies manage and gain visibility into what people are using inside the company and decide to secure them or use standards to lock down or to embrace the adoption of SaaS inside the company," explained Scott Kriz, Co-founder and CEO of Bitium, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Jun. 2, 2015 09:00 PM EDT Reads: 5,306
The only place to be Nov 3-5 is Cloud Expo | @ThingsExpo | DevOps Summit 2015 West at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Join us there as delegates from all over the world come to listen to and engage with speakers & sponsors from the leading Cloud Computing, IoT, Big Data and DevOps companies. Cloud Expo & @ThingsExpo are the leading events covering the booming market of Cloud Computing, IoT & Big Data for the enterprise. Speakers from all over the world will be hand-picked...
Jun. 2, 2015 08:45 PM EDT Reads: 1,812
There is little doubt that Big Data solutions will have an increasing role in the Enterprise IT mainstream over time. 8th International Big Data Expo, co-located with 17th International Cloud Expo - to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA - has announced its Call for Papers is open. As advanced data storage, access and analytics technologies aimed at handling high-volume and/or fast moving data all move center stage, aided by the cloud computing bo...
Jun. 2, 2015 08:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,728
“The year of the cloud – we have no idea when it's really happening but we think it's happening now. For those technology providers like Zentera that are helping enterprises move to the cloud - it's been fun to watch," noted Mike Loftus, VP Product Management and Marketing at Zentera Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Jun. 2, 2015 08:15 PM EDT Reads: 4,229
"Blue Box has been around for 10-11 years, and last year we launched Blue Box Cloud. We like the term 'Private Cloud as a Service' because we think that embodies what we are launching as a product - it's a managed hosted private cloud," explained Giles Frith, Vice President of Customer Operations at Blue Box, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Jun. 2, 2015 08:00 PM EDT Reads: 4,552
DevOps Summit at Cloud Expo New York is offering a limited time FREE "Expo Plus" registration option in New York. On site registration price of $1,95 will be set to 'free' for delegates who register during special offer. To take advantage of this opportunity, attendees can use the coupon code, and secure their registration to attend all keynotes, @DevOpsSummit sessions at Cloud Expo, expo floor, and SYS-CON.tv power panels. Special FREE registration givess access to all Containers and Microservi...
Jun. 2, 2015 07:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,133