SYS-CON MEDIA Authors: Trevor Parsons, Sean Houghton, Glenn Rossman, Ignacio M. Llorente, Xenia von Wedel

News Feed Item

Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Projects 13-Fold Growth in Global Mobile Internet Data Traffic From 2012 - 2017

Nearly Half of All Cellular Traffic Will Be Off-Loaded to Fixed or Wi-Fi Networks by 2017; 4G Expected to Support Nearly 10 Percent of All Mobile Connections by 2017

SAN JOSE, CA -- (Marketwire) -- 02/05/13 -- Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) -- According to the Cisco® Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2012 to 2017, worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold over the next four years, reaching 11.2 exabytes* per month (for an annual run rate of 134 exabytes) by 2017. The expected steady increase in mobile traffic is partly due to continued strong growth in the number of mobile Internet connections (personal devices and machine-to-machine applications), which will exceed the world's population (United Nations estimates 7.6 billion) by 2017.

*An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to one quintillion bytes.

The forecast's annual run rate of 134 exabytes of mobile data traffic is equivalent to:

  • 134 times all the Internet Protocol traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in the year 2000, or
  • 30 trillion images (e.g., via MMS or Instagram) -- 10 images daily from each person on earth for one year, or
  • 3 trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube) -- one video clip daily from each person on earth over one year.

The projected 2012 to 2017 global mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate of 66 percent. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet just between 2016 and 2017 is 3.7 exabytes per month, which is more than four times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012 (885 petabytes per month).

During the 2012 to 2017 forecast period, Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outpace global fixed data traffic by a factor of three. The following major trends are driving global mobile data traffic growth:

  • More mobile users: By 2017, there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2012).
  • More mobile connections: By 2017, there will be more than 10 billion mobile devices/connections, including more than 1.7 billion M2M connections (up from 7 billion total mobile devices and M2M connections in 2012).
  • Faster mobile speeds: Average global mobile network speeds will increase seven-fold from 2012 (0.5 Mbps) to 2017 (3.9 Mbps).
  • More mobile video: By 2017, mobile video will represent 66 percent of global mobile data traffic (up from 51 percent in 2012).

Impact of Mobile Devices/Connections

  • Smartphones, laptops, and tablets will drive 93 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2017.
  • M2M traffic (such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems, medical applications, etc.) will represent 5 percent of 2017 global mobile data traffic.
  • Basic handsets will account for the remaining 2 percent of global mobile data traffic in 2017.
  • In 2012, 14 percent of all mobile-connected devices/connections (1 billion) were IPv6-capable.
  • By 2017, 41 percent of all mobile-connected devices/connections (4.2 billion) will be IPv6-capable.

Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
To address the rise in demand for mobile Internet, and to address the lack of available new mobile spectrum and the expense and complexity of adding new macrocell sites, service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed or Wi-Fi networks.

  • In 2012, 33 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded (428 petabytes/month).
  • By 2017, 46 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded (9.6 exabytes/month).

Key Regional Growth Projections
In terms of mobile data traffic growth rates over the forecast period, the Middle East and Africa region is projected to have the highest regional growth rate. Below is how each of the regions ranks in terms of growth rate by 2017:

  • The Middle East and Africa: 77 percent CAGR (17.3-fold growth)
  • Asia-Pacific: 76 percent CAGR (16.9-fold growth)
  • Latin America: 67 percent CAGR (13.2-fold growth)
  • Central and Eastern Europe: 66 percent CAGR (12.8-fold growth)
  • North America: 56 percent CAGR (9.4-fold growth)
  • Western Europe: 50 percent CAGR (7.6-fold growth)

In terms of mobile data traffic generation, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to generate the most mobile data traffic. Here's how each of the regions rank in terms of anticipated mobile data traffic generation by 2017:

  • Asia-Pacific: 5.3 exabytes/month
  • North America: 2.1 exabytes/month
  • Western Europe: 1.4 exabytes/month
  • The Middle East and Africa: 0.9 exabytes/month
  • Central and Eastern Europe: 0.8 exabytes/month
  • Latin America: 0.7 exabytes/month

Impact of Faster Global Mobile Network Connection Speeds
The average mobile connection is expected to increase seven-fold from 2012 to 2017. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in supporting mobile data traffic growth.


(kbps)                  2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017      CAGR
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Mobile
 Connection Speed        526    817   1,233  1,857  2,725  3,898  49 percent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Smartphone
 Connection Speed       2,064  2,664  3,358  4,263  5,284  6,528  26 percent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source: Results from Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST), part of the Cisco VNI program, and other independent speed test findings. The Cisco GIST application has more than 1 million global users. These projections include cellular connection speeds only (not Wi-Fi) and are based on extrapolations from historical mobile network connection speed data.

4G Adoption and Mobile Data Traffic Growth
Many global mobile carriers are deploying 4G technologies to address consumer and business users' demands for wireless services. In many emerging markets, carriers are creating new mobile networks with 4G solutions. In mature markets, carriers are supplementing or replacing legacy (2G/3G) networks with 4G technologies. The Cisco Mobile VNI study now projects the growth and impact of 4G.

  • In 2012, 2G supported 76 percent of global mobile devices/M2M connections; 3G supported 23 percent; and 4G supported 1 percent.
  • By 2017, 2G networks will support 33 percent of global mobile devices/M2M connections; 3G networks will support 57 percent; and 4G networks will support 10 percent.

  • In 2012, 4G connections accounted for 14 percent (124 petabytes/month) of mobile data traffic.
  • By 2017, 4G connections will account for 45 percent (5 exabytes/month) of mobile data traffic.

  • In 2012, the average 4G connection generated 2.1 gigabytes of mobile data traffic per month, which is 19 times the 0.110 gigabytes/month for the average non-4G connection.
  • By 2017, 4G traffic will grow 40-fold, a 109 percent CAGR.

Cisco Mobile VNI Forecast Methodology
The Cisco Mobile VNI study relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco's own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use, and transmission speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device computing power are also factored into Cisco VNI projections and findings. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report (see link below).

Supporting Quote

  • Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Networking Marketing, Cisco
    "By 2017, global mobile data traffic will continue its truly remarkable growth, increasing 13-fold over the next five years, to reach an amount more than 46 times the total amount of mobile IP traffic just a few years ago in 2010. With such dramatic adoption, we are rapidly approaching the time when nearly every network experience will be a mobile one and, more often than not, a visual one as well. This trend is a result of the seemingly insatiable demand by consumers and businesses alike to achieve the benefits gained when connecting people, data, and things in an Internet of Everything."

Executive Photo

  • Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Networking Marketing, Cisco

YouTube Animation

Additional Images

  • Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
  • Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth -- Top Line

Additional Supporting Resources

Editor's Note
Cisco invites press, analysts and bloggers to attend a live webcast featuring Cisco executives and a roundtable of information technology and service provider industry experts talking about the global impact of mobile data traffic growth for service providers, organizations and consumers. The live webcast begins at 6p.m. PST today and can be accessed by going to Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update (2012-2017).

Cisco also welcomes press, analysts, bloggers, service providers, regulators and other interested parties to use and reference our research with proper attribution, such as "Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2012-2017."

Tags/Keywords
Cisco, Service Provider, Visual Networking Index, VNI, Mobile Internet, Mobile Data, Mobile Video, Mobile VNI, Doug Webster

RSS Feed for Cisco: http://newsroom.cisco.com/rss-feeds

About Cisco
Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is the worldwide leader in IT that helps companies seize the opportunities of tomorrow by proving that amazing things can happen when you connect the previously unconnected. For ongoing news, please go to http://thenetwork.cisco.com.

Cisco and the Cisco logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Cisco and/or its affiliates in the U.S. and other countries. A listing of Cisco's trademarks can be found at www.cisco.com/go/trademarks. Third-party trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. The use of the word partner does not imply a partnership relationship between Cisco and any other company.

Embedded Video Available

Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221369
Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221372
Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221417
Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221420
Embedded Video Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221407

Add to Digg Bookmark with del.icio.us Add to Newsvine

Press Contact:
Kevin Petschow
(847) 678.5462
[email protected]

Industry Analyst Contact:
Carter Cromwell
(949) 526.6914
[email protected]

Investor Relations Contact:
John Choi
(408) 526.6651
[email protected]

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

Latest Stories
ScriptRock makes GuardRail, a DevOps-ready platform for configuration monitoring. Realizing we were spending way too much time digging up, cataloguing, and tracking machine configurations, we began writing our own scripts and tools to handle what is normally an enormous chore. Then we took the concept a step further, giving it a beautiful interface and making it simple enough for our bosses to understand. We named it GuardRail after its function - to allow businesses to move fast and stay sa...
In high-production environments where release cycles are measured in hours or minutes — not days or weeks — there's little room for mistakes and no room for confusion. Everyone has to understand what's happening, in real time, and have the means to do whatever is necessary to keep applications up and running optimally. DevOps is a high-stakes world, but done well, it delivers the agility and performance to significantly impact business competitiveness.
The Internet of Things is not new. Historically, smart businesses have used its basic concept of leveraging data to drive better decision making and have capitalized on those insights to realize additional revenue opportunities. So, what has changed to make the Internet of Things one of the hottest topics in tech? In his session at @ThingsExpo, Chris Gray, Director, Embedded and Internet of Things, discussed the underlying factors that are driving the economics of intelligent systems. Discover ...
SYS-CON Media announced today that Sematext launched a popular blog feed on DevOps Journal with over 6,000 story reads over the weekend. DevOps Journal is focused on this critical enterprise IT topic in the world of cloud computing. DevOps Journal brings valuable information to DevOps professionals who are transforming the way enterprise IT is done. Sematext is a globally distributed organization that builds innovative Cloud and On Premises solutions for performance monitoring, alerting an...
"BSQUARE is in the business of selling software solutions for smart connected devices. It's obvious that IoT has moved from being a technology to being a fundamental part of business, and in the last 18 months people have said let's figure out how to do it and let's put some focus on it, " explained Dave Wagstaff, VP & Chief Architect, at BSQUARE Corporation, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Nov 4-6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
The major cloud platforms defy a simple, side-by-side analysis. Each of the major IaaS public-cloud platforms offers their own unique strengths and functionality. Options for on-site private cloud are diverse as well, and must be designed and deployed while taking existing legacy architecture and infrastructure into account. Then the reality is that most enterprises are embarking on a hybrid cloud strategy and programs. In this Power Panel at 15th Cloud Expo (http://www.CloudComputingExpo.com...
Leysin American School is an exclusive, private boarding school located in Leysin, Switzerland. Leysin selected an OpenStack-powered, private cloud as a service to manage multiple applications and provide development environments for students across the institution. Seeking to meet rigid data sovereignty and data integrity requirements while offering flexible, on-demand cloud resources to users, Leysin identified OpenStack as the clear choice to round out the school's cloud strategy. Additional...
Verizon Enterprise Solutions is simplifying the cloud-purchasing experience for its clients, with the launch of Verizon Cloud Marketplace, a key foundational component of the company's robust ecosystem of enterprise-class technologies. The online storefront will initially feature pre-built cloud-based services from AppDynamics, Hitachi Data Systems, Juniper Networks, PfSense and Tervela. Available globally to enterprises using Verizon Cloud, Verizon Cloud Marketplace provides a one-stop shop fo...
The move in recent years to cloud computing services and architectures has added significant pace to the application development and deployment environment. When enterprise IT can spin up large computing instances in just minutes, developers can also design and deploy in small time frames that were unimaginable a few years ago. The consequent move toward lean, agile, and fast development leads to the need for the development and operations sides to work very closely together. Thus, DevOps become...
SYS-CON Events announced today that IDenticard will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. IDenticard™ is the security division of Brady Corp (NYSE: BRC), a $1.5 billion manufacturer of identification products. We have small-company values with the strength and stability of a major corporation. IDenticard offers local sales, support and service to our customers across the United States and Canada...
SYS-CON Media announced today that Aruna Ravichandran, VP of Marketing, Application Performance Management and DevOps at CA Technologies, has joined DevOps Journal’s authors. DevOps Journal is focused on this critical enterprise IT topic in the world of cloud computing. DevOps Journal brings valuable information to DevOps professionals who are transforming the way enterprise IT is done. Aruna's inaugural article "Four Essential Cultural Hacks for DevOps Newbies" discusses how to demonstrate the...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Windstream, a leading provider of advanced network and cloud communications, has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Windstream (Nasdaq: WIN), a FORTUNE 500 and S&P 500 company, is a leading provider of advanced network communications, including cloud computing and managed services, to businesses nationwide. The company also offers broadband, p...
SYS-CON Events announced today that AIC, a leading provider of OEM/ODM server and storage solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. AIC is a leading provider of both standard OTS, off-the-shelf, and OEM/ODM server and storage solutions. With expert in-house design capabilities, validation, manufacturing and production, AIC's broad selection of products are highly flexible and are conf...

ARMONK, N.Y., Nov. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --  IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced that it is bringing a greater level of control, security and flexibility to cloud-based application development and delivery with a single-tenant version of Bluemix, IBM's

The BPM world is going through some evolution or changes where traditional business process management solutions really have nowhere to go in terms of development of the road map. In this demo at 15th Cloud Expo, Kyle Hansen, Director of Professional Services at AgilePoint, shows AgilePoint’s unique approach to dealing with this market circumstance by developing a rapid application composition or development framework.