SYS-CON MEDIA Authors: Pat Romanski, Elizabeth White, Glenn Rossman, Cynthia Dunlop, Peter Silva

News Feed Item

Will China's Consumer Boom Spark U.S. Shortages? It Could Happen -- If the "Boomerang Effect" Isn't Kept in Check

BCG Research Shows That the Rise of the Middle Class in China and India Could Prompt Widespread Shortages and Inflation, but Smart Investment, Policies, and Technologies Could Forestall Crisis

BOSTON, MA -- (Marketwire) -- 03/05/13 -- Chinese and Indian consumers are living well and eating well. And that could spark a global crisis. The consumer boom in China and India will touch off global inflation and could lead to food and water riots if investment, policy, and technology don't keep pace.

Without smart, quick action by the private sector and government alike, surging Chinese and Indian demand for premium foods will lead to commodity volatility, runaway food prices, and worldwide water shortages as the "boomerang effect" brings the unexpected impact of Asian growth to U.S. shores.

That's the conclusion of research by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The main findings are presented in "The Boomerang Effect," a Perspective that is being released today, and "The $10 Trillion Prize: Capturing the Newly Affluent in China and India" (Harvard Business Review Press, October 2012), a recent book by BCG consultants Michael J. Silverstein, Abheek Singhi, Carol Liao, and David C. Michael.

The Perspective is part of BCG's Game-Changing Program to help leaders and their companies capitalize on the opportunities created by the seismic shifts in the global economy.

"Chinese and Indian consumers are celebrating their newfound wealth by eating like Americans: they're shifting their diets from grain to meat," Silverstein said. "Their wealth is a good thing. It creates new markets and new opportunities. But it can also lead to global traumas: highly inflated food prices across the U.S., as well as dangerous worldwide shortages of key natural resources, especially water.

The Boomerang Effect Brings Surprising Outcomes from Asia to the U.S.

"This is an example of what we call the boomerang effect -- a set of hard-to-foresee outcomes that come home to roost as a result of developments far away," Silverstein said. "We have seen it before. In the early 1990s, direct investment in China led to a flood of cheap goods and permanent shifts in the U.S. labor market. This time, it's different. The Chinese and Indian middle-class consumers have developed new food preferences that will lead to hypercompetition for commodities such as feed, corn, and water. Climate change is already creating droughts worldwide and bringing the threat of famine, food riots, and water wars in Asia. This new surge in consumer demand will worsen the strain in Asia and the U.S. as well."

But the boomerang effect doesn't necessarily lead to chaos, Silverstein added. "Crisis can always lead to opportunity. Smart investments and policies can limit the impact of inflation and shortages."

Step by Step: How Changing Food Tastes in China and India Could Spark Crisis

According to BCG, there are only a few steps between booming wealth and changing tastes in China and India and global crisis:

  • Wealth -- and consumption -- is skyrocketing in both India and China. By 2020, there will be 2 billion economically able Chinese and Indian consumers -- 1 billion of them new to the middle class. In both nations, lifetime consumption patterns are changing radically. Chinese born in 2009 will consume 38 times more than those born in 1960. Indians born in 2009 will consume 13 times more than those born in 1960.

  • Doing well means eating well, and that means eating meat. Consumers in China are celebrating their wealth by abandoning their traditional diets, shifting from grain toward chicken and pork. Chicken and pork accounted for 4 percent of daily calories in China in 1960; by 2020 they could account for as much as 28 percent. The surge in demand is forcing China to become a net importer of chicken and pork.

  • For meat, you need livestock. For livestock, you need feed. Feed is in short supply. Demand for chicken and pork means demand for feed grain -- lots of it. It takes 2 kilograms of feed to produce 1 kilogram of chicken and 6 kilograms of feed to produce 1 kilogram of pork. In 2010, 99 percent of China's corn production went for feed -- a figure that also represents 20 percent of global corn production for that year. The result is that China is no longer self-sufficient when it comes to corn. China's corn imports will increase from 1.7 million tons in 2010 to 15 million tons in 2015 -- the equivalent of U.S. exports of 600 million bushels.

  • Put a strain on the global feed supply? You're going to pay for it. All the figures above mean that China's corn consumption will have significant global impact, and prices will surge well beyond current levels. Global corn consumption is projected to rise 3.2 percent per year from now through 2020. That means a 40 percent increase in overall consumption. And that means corn prices could increase as much as 57 percent from 2010 through 2020.

  • Expensive corn means expensive food -- including here at home. Demand for corn in China drives up beef prices in the U.S. Feed is 55 percent of the cost of raising cattle. And grain is 60 percent of the total cost of feed. So a 57 percent increase in the cost of feed by 2020 could lead to a 20 percent increase in beef prices. That hits home. A Big Mac, which cost about $3 in 2003 and goes for just over $4 today, could, by 2015, easily cost $5 -- or even more.

  • There's no meat without feed and no feed without water. To grow feed grain, you need large quantities of water. China's shift to meat consumption leads to a tenfold increase in the need for water. And the water supply is already in crisis. Worldwide, water consumption is already ahead of sustainable supply and is growing at 2.2 percent a year. In China and India (which depends on China for much of its water), water supplies are strained by drought. India could have 600 million people without water in 25 years.

  • The water crisis brings it all back home. Water is a problem in the U.S., too. It is becoming difficult to irrigate land there, and a new dust bowl is a real possibility. Water restrictions are already in place in Western states, and the price of water in some U.S. cities is already equivalent to those in Israel. U.S. water riots aren't out of the question. But short of that, scarce water means costlier food. The last dust bowl -- from 1931 through 1936 -- killed off 30 percent of corn production and drove corn prices up 115 percent. Right now, U.S. food exports to China require an 18 percent annual increase in water consumption. Higher corn prices, the result of drought alone -- leaving out other factors -- could double the price of chicken by 2018.

Getting Ahead of the Crisis: Policies Can Help, and Companies Can Prosper

Is the worst-case scenario inevitable? Not necessarily, Silverstein said. "Famine and food riots are a reality in India, and water wars between China and India are a genuine risk. But innovation can help. Smart policy decisions can mitigate the worst effects and create opportunities for companies that are sharp and nimble."

BCG lists the following among the private- and public-sector initiatives that could help:

  • Microirrigation that delivers water directly to plant roots could increase the efficiency of water use by 50 percent.

  • Innovations in seed technology, including genetically modified organisms, can mean higher food production with no increase in water consumption.

  • New policies that price water at market rates, could, said Silverstein, "lead to more efficient water use, as it already has in Israel."

"The boomerang effect doesn't have to end in riots and fewer hamburgers for Americans," Silverstein said.

For more information, please go to www.bcgperspectives.com/10trillionprize.

Follow Michael Silverstein on Twitter @MJSilverstein.

A copy of the report can be downloaded at www.bcgperspectives.com.

To arrange an interview with one of the authors, please contact Eric Gregoire at +1 617 850 3783 or [email protected].

About The Boston Consulting Group

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world's leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients from the private, public, and not-for-profit sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their enterprises. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 78 offices in 43 countries. For more information, please visit bcg.com.

About bcgperspectives.com

Bcgperspectives.com features the latest thinking from BCG experts as well as from CEOs, academics, and other leaders. It covers issues at the top of senior management's agenda. It also provides unprecedented access to BCG's extensive archive of thought leadership stretching back almost 50 years to the days of Bruce Henderson, the firm's founder and one of the architects of modern management consulting. All of our content -- including videos, podcasts, commentaries, and reports -- can be accessed via PC, mobile, iPad, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

The BCG Game-Changing Program

We are living in an age of accelerating change. The old ways are rapidly becoming obsolete and new opportunities are opening up. It is clear that the game is changing. At The Boston Consulting Group, we are optimistic: we think that the fundamental drivers of growth are stronger than they have ever been before. But to capitalize on this trend, leaders need to be proactive, to challenge the status quo, to make bold moves -- they need to change the game, too. The decisions they make now, and over the next ten years, will have an extraordinary and enduring impact on their own fortunes as well as on those of their organizations, the global economy, and society at large. To help leaders, and to mark our fiftieth anniversary, BCG is pulling together the best ideas, insights, and ways to win -- to own the future. This publication is part of that endeavor.

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

@CloudExpo Stories
The major cloud platforms defy a simple, side-by-side analysis. Each of the major IaaS public-cloud platforms offers their own unique strengths and functionality. Options for on-site private cloud are diverse as well, and must be designed and deployed while taking existing legacy architecture and infrastructure into account. Then the reality is that most enterprises are embarking on a hybrid cloud strategy and programs. In this Power Panel at 15th Cloud Expo, moderated by Ashar Baig, Research ...
In her General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Anne Plese, Senior Consultant, Cloud Product Marketing, at Verizon Enterprise, will focus on finding the right mix of renting vs. buying Oracle capacity to scale to meet business demands, and offer validated Oracle database TCO models for Oracle development and testing environments. Anne Plese is a marketing and technology enthusiast/realist with over 19+ years in high tech. At Verizon Enterprise, she focuses on driving growth for the Verizon Cloud pla...
StackIQ offers a comprehensive software suite that automates the deployment, provisioning, and management of Big Infrastructure. With StackIQ’s software, you can spin up fully configured big data clusters, quickly and consistently — from bare-metal up to the applications layer — and manage them efficiently. Our software’s modular architecture allows customers to integrate nearly any application with the StackIQ software stack.
As Platform as a Service (PaaS) matures as a category, developers should have the ability to use the programming language of their choice to build applications and have access to a wide array of services. Bluemix is IBM's open cloud development platform that enables users to easily build cloud-based, creative mobile and web applications without having to spend large amounts of time and resources on configuring infrastructure and multiple software licenses. In this track, you will learn about the...
The Internet of Things will greatly expand the opportunities for data collection and new business models driven off of that data. In her session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Esmeralda Swartz, CMO of MetraTech, will discuss how for this to be effective you not only need to have infrastructure and operational models capable of utilizing this new phenomenon, but increasingly service providers will need to convince a skeptical public to participate. Get ready to show them the money! Speaker Bio: ...
Compute virtualization has been transformational, yet security policy implementation and enforcement has lagged behind in agility and automation. There are a number of key considerations when implementing policy in private and hybrid clouds. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Holland Barry, VP of Technology at Catbird, will discuss the impact of this new paradigm and what organizations can do today to safely move to software-defined network and compute architectures, including: How normal ope...
Samsung VP Jacopo Lenzi, who headed the company's recent SmartThings acquisition under the auspices of Samsung's Open Innovaction Center (OIC), answered a few questions we had about the deal. This interview was in conjunction with our interview with SmartThings CEO Alex Hawkinson. IoT Journal: SmartThings was developed in an open, standards-agnostic platform, and will now be part of Samsung's Open Innovation Center. Can you elaborate on your commitment to keep the platform open? Jacopo Lenzi: S...
How do APIs and IoT relate? The answer is not as simple as merely adding an API on top of a dumb device, but rather about understanding the architectural patterns for implementing an IoT fabric. There are typically two or three trends: Exposing the device to a management framework Exposing that management framework to a business centric logic • Exposing that business layer and data to end users. This last trend is the IoT stack, which involves a new shift in the separation of what stuff hap...
SYS-CON Events announced today that SOA Software, an API management leader, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. SOA Software is a leading provider of API Management and SOA Governance products that equip business to deliver APIs and SOA together to drive their company to meet its business strategy quickly and effectively. SOA Software’s technology helps businesses to accel...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Utimaco will exhibit at SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Utimaco is a leading manufacturer of hardware based security solutions that provide the root of trust to keep cryptographic keys safe, secure critical digital infrastructures and protect high value data assets. Only Utimaco delivers a general-purpose hardware security module (HSM) as a customiz...
Almost everyone sees the potential of Internet of Things but how can businesses truly unlock that potential. The key will be in the ability to discover business insight in the midst of an ocean of Big Data generated from billions of embedded devices via Systems of Discover. Businesses will also need to ensure that they can sustain that insight by leveraging the cloud for global reach, scale and elasticity.
SYS-CON Events announced today that ElasticBox is holding a Hackathon at DevOps Summit, November 6 from 12 pm -4 pm at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. You can enter as an individual or team of up to 10 developers. A New Star Is Born Every Month! All completed ElasticBoxes will then be sent to a judging panel - 12 winners will be featured on the ElasticBox website in 2015. All entrants will receive five full enterprise licenses for one year + ElasticBox headphones + Elasti...
Once the decision has been made to move part or all of a workload to the cloud, a methodology for selecting that workload needs to be established. How do you move to the cloud? What does the discovery, assessment and planning look like? What workloads make sense? Which cloud model makes sense for each workload? What are the considerations for how to select the right cloud model? And how does that fit in with the overall IT tranformation? In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, John Hatem, head of V...
Cloud services are the newest tool in the arsenal of IT products in the market today. These cloud services integrate process and tools. In order to use these products effectively, organizations must have a good understanding of themselves and their business requirements. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Brian Lewis, Principal Architect at Verizon Cloud, will outline key areas of organizational focus, and how to formalize an actionable plan when migrating applications and internal services to...
SAP is delivering break-through innovation combined with fantastic user experience powered by the market-leading in-memory technology, SAP HANA. In his General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Thorsten Leiduck, VP ISVs & Digital Commerce, SAP, will discuss how SAP and partners provide cloud and hybrid cloud solutions as well as real-time Big Data offerings that help companies of all sizes and industries run better. SAP launched an application challenge to award the most innovative SAP HANA and SAP ...
Ixia develops amazing products so its customers can connect the world. Ixia helps its customers provide an always-on user experience through fast, secure delivery of dynamic connected technologies and services. Through actionable insights that accelerate and secure application and service delivery, Ixia's customers benefit from faster time to market, optimized application performance and higher-quality deployments.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Calm.io has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of DevOps Summit Silicon Valley, which will take place on November 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Calm.io is a cloud orchestration platform for AWS, vCenter, OpenStack, or bare metal, that runs your CL tools puppet, Chef, shell, git, Jenkins, nagios, and will soon support New Relic and Docker. It can run hosted, or on premise and provides VM automation / expiry, self-service portals,...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Aria Systems, the recurring revenue expert, has been named "Bronze Sponsor" of SYS-CON's 15th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 4-6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Aria Systems helps leading businesses connect their customers with the products and services they love. Industry leaders like Pitney Bowes, Experian, AAA NCNU, VMware, HootSuite and many others choose Aria to power their recurring revenue bu...
The Internet of Things (IoT) is going to require a new way of thinking and of developing software for speed, security and innovation. This requires IT leaders to balance business as usual while anticipating for the next market and technology trends. Cloud provides the right IT asset portfolio to help today’s IT leaders manage the old and prepare for the new. Today the cloud conversation is evolving from private and public to hybrid. This session will provide use cases and insights to reinforce t...
Blue Box has closed a $10 million Series B financing. The round was led by a strategic investor and included participation from prior investors including Voyager Capital and Founders Collective, as well as the Blue Box executive team. This round follows a $4.3 million Series A closed in December of 2012 and led by Voyager Capital. In May of this year, the company announced general availability of its private cloud as a service offering, Blue Box Cloud. Since that release, the company has dem...