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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Fell in November

MUMBAI, India, Dec. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India declined 1.2 percent in November. The index stands at 174.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in October and a 0.9 percent decline in September. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in November.

Said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Despite somewhat stabilizing current conditions, the LEI's persistent weakness suggests the economy will not improve much in 2014. The volatility in the LEI's six-month growth, which has been negative since the first quarter of 2013, suggests that the economy will remain vulnerable, particularly to changes in global conditions."

Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. "The decline in the LEI reinforces the view that the imminent tapering of the monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve could call an end to the short breathing period the Indian economy is currently enjoying, and that more policy intervention may be needed in order to avoid larger negative effects on the economy. "

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.9 percent in November to 201.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent decline in October and a 2.4 percent decline in September. Three of the four components contributed positively to the index in November.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

NOTE:

Next month's release will incorporate benchmark revisions to the composite indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Every January, data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2013

6-month


Sep

Oct

Nov 

May to Nov






Leading Economic Index

174.8

176.7 p

174.6 p


  Percent Change

-0.9

1.1 p

-1.2 p

-3.4

  Diffusion

25.0

75.0

43.8

50.0






Coincident Economic Index

202.2 r

199.6 r

201.4 p


  Percent Change

-2.4 r

-1.3 r

0.9 p

-0.4

  Diffusion

37.5

50.0

87.5

50.0






n.a. Not available          p Preliminary                   r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board             All Rights Reserved

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, January 16, 2014 at 10:00 A.M. (Mumbai time)
In New YorkWednesday, January 15, 2014 at 11:30 P.M. (EST)

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