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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Increased Slightly in December

MUMBAI, India, Jan. 15, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 0.1 percent in December. The index stands at 175.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent decline in November and a 1.5 percent increase in October. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in December.

Said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board: "The small gain in the LEI in December was mainly driven by monetary policy and financial indicators, while exports fell in the last quarter.  The persistent weakness of the LEI in the second half of 2013, coupled with stubbornly high inflation, suggests that India's economy will continue to face downside risks in 2014."

Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board: "We expect, at best, a moderate improvement from last year's disappointing GDP performance. India still has the potential to return to a 5 to 6 percent annual rate of growth provided reforms in labor markets and tax regimes, which are driving productivity, get accelerated. The Conference Board's latest productivity estimates, published earlier this week, project labor productivity growth in India at a meager 2.7 percent for 2014."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in November to 197.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent decline in November and a 1.2 percent decline in October. Only one of the four components contributed positively to the index in December.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI) 
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited) 
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI) 
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI) 
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry) 
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization) 
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

NOTE: 
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm  or contact [email protected].

About The Conference Board 
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

 



2013

6-month 


Oct

Nov  

Dec

Jun to Dec

Leading Economic Index 

177.7


175.7

p

175.9

p


   Percent Change  

1.5


-1.1

p  

0.1

p  

-1.3

   Diffusion

75.0


43.8


50.0


62.5









Coincident Economic Index

199.3


197.1


197.9

p


   Percent Change 

-1.2


-1.1


0.4

p

0.1

   Diffusion

25.0


75.0


25.0


25.0

 

n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board     All Rights Reserved

 

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