SYS-CON MEDIA Authors: Plutora Blog, Trevor Parsons, Elizabeth White, Pat Romanski, Yeshim Deniz

News Feed Item

Eight-Year Global Economic Expansion Expected Says BNY Mellon's Richard Hoey

Global Economic Growth Should Accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016

NEW YORK and LONDON, Jan. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- A long expansion in the global and U.S. economy is expected to last for a total of eight years (2009 to 2017) according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update entitled, "Eight-Year Economic Expansion."  Global GDP growth should accelerate by one-half to three-quarters of one percent faster than in 2012 and 2013.

"Because the global and U.S. economy grew at only a slow pace since the recession low in mid-2009, the upsurge of inflation that one would normally expect to occur after many years of economic expansion has not occurred," Hoey says.  "As a result, developed world monetary policy is not poised to become aggressively restrictive in order to stifle inflation any time soon, but rather can remain stimulative for an extended period of time.  It is true that the central banks of the U.S., Japan and the Eurozone are worried about inflation, but they are worried that inflation is too low."

While Hoey believes that inflation will rise eventually, he thinks it will drift higher only gradually over the coming years and that governments and central banks will be tolerant of that gradual upward drift in inflation. 

"We expect that a gradual upward drift in wage inflation, core inflation and reported inflation over the next several years is likely to be well-tolerated by (1) public opinion, (2) governments and (3) central banks," says Hoey.  "In the U.S., it has been three and a half decades since the double-digit inflation peak in 1980.  The share of labor compensation in GDP is near the lowest level in half a century.  In that context, a gradual upward drift in domestic wage inflation over the next several years should be well-tolerated by most and welcomed by many."

Other Economic Update findings include:

3 PHASES OF U.S. 8-YEAR ECONOMIC EXPANSION – Hoey believes that the U.S. economy is in a long "eight-year economic expansion" (2009-2017), with three phases: (1) four years of growth averaging about 2%, which ended in mid-2013, (2) a minimum of three years of growth averaging about 3% and (3) a slower pace of growth in the final quarters of the eight-year expansion. 

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN THE EUROZONE – While Hoey cites long-term Eurozone challenges, including an aging demographic, high energy prices, excess debt, an elevated currency due to its current account surplus and a fragile financial system in peripheral Europe, he expects a sustainable economic expansion in the Eurozone, with the pace of real GDP growth in 2014 in the 1% to 1.5% range. 

UNCERTAIN LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR JAPAN – While Japan faces a "very choppy year in 2014" due to the increase in the value-added tax scheduled for April 1, Hoey expects sharply declining economic activity for three or four months, followed by renewed expansion.  Hoey is more uncertain about the long-term outlook, given challenging demographics and debt ratios. 

GRADUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA – Hoey believes that the most complex issue in the global outlook for 2014 is the Chinese economic and financial outlook.  Stating that the Chinese government has a choice whether to rebalance the economy and financial system gradually or rapidly, Hoey expects Chinese 2014 economic growth can persist gradually at about the same pace as in 2013, roughly 7.5%. 

"Overall, we believe that global economic growth should accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016 to a growth rate one-half to three-quarters of 1% faster than in 2012 and 2013," Hoey concludes.  "We expect an 'eight-year economic expansion' in the global economy and the U.S. economy."

See http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/pdf/update.pdf  for Hoey's complete Economic Outlook.    

Notes to Editors:

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of December 31, 2013, BNY Mellon had $27.6 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.6 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon as of Dec. 31, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK, Europe and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the author as at the date of issue; are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice. BNYMAMI and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice.  Past performance is not a guide to future performance.  The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements.  When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.                                                                                                         

Contact:

Patrice Kozlowski

Sarah Deutscher


+1 212 922 6030

+44 20 763 2744


[email protected]

[email protected]

 

 

 

SOURCE BNY Mellon

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Over the past year, Datical has had amazing success with our flagship product, Datical DB. We’ve seen multiple visionary, sector-leading companies select Datical DB to drive their Application Schema changes. Now that the number has grown rapidly over the past year, we can begin to see patterns in why customers choose Datical DB. One of them turns out to be pretty emblematic of our other customers. So, let's examine the reasons why they chose to adopt Datical DB.
“DevOps is really about the business. The business is under pressure today, competitively in the marketplace to respond to the expectations of the customer. The business is driving IT and the problem is that IT isn't responding fast enough," explained Mark Levy, Senior Product Marketing Manager at Serena Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
At 15th Cloud Expo, Shrikant Pattathil, Executive Vice President at Harbinger Systems, demos a video delivery platform that helps you do interactive videos. He discusses how Harbinger is accomplishing it in the cloud world, the problems they faced and the choices they made to get around these problems.
Want to enable self-service provisioning of application environments in minutes that mirror production? Can you automatically provide rich data with code-level detail back to the developers when issues occur in production? In his session at DevOps Summit, David Tesar, Microsoft Technical Evangelist on Microsoft Azure and DevOps, will discuss how to accomplish this and more utilizing technologies such as Microsoft Azure, Visual Studio online, and Application Insights in this demo-heavy session.
Log data provides the most granular view into what is happening across your systems, applications, and end users. Logs can show you where the issues are in real-time, and provide a historical trending view over time. Logs give you the whole picture. Logentries, a log management and analytics service built for the cloud, has announced a new integration with Slack, the team communication platform, to enable real-time system and application monitoring. Users of both services can now receive real-...
Entuity®, a provider of enterprise-class network management solutions, today announced that it solidifies its position as a market leader through global enterprise customer acquisitions and a refined channel strategy. In 2014, Entuity increased new license revenues in EMEA by over 75 percent, and LATAM by over 125 percent as customers embraced Entuity for its highly automated solution and unified architecture. Entuity’s refined channel strategy focuses on even deeper strategic alignment with ke...
CloudBees, Inc., has announced a $23.5 million financing round, led by longtime CloudBees investor Lightspeed Venture Partners. Existing investors Matrix Partners, Verizon Ventures and Blue Cloud Ventures also participated in the round. The latest funding announcement follows earlier rounds of $4 million, $10.5 million and $10.8 million, bringing the total investment in CloudBees to just under $50 million since the company’s inception in 2010. Previous venture investment rounds were led by Ma...
We are all here because we are sold on the transformative promise of The Cloud. But what good is all of this ephemeral, on-demand infrastructure if your usage doesn't actually improve the agility and speed of your business? How must Operations adapt in order to avoid stifling your Cloud initiative? In his session at DevOps Summit, Damon Edwards, co-founder and managing partner of the DTO Solutions, will highlight the successful organizational, process, and tooling patterns of high-performing c...
“The year of the cloud – we have no idea when it's really happening but we think it's happening now. For those technology providers like Zentera that are helping enterprises move to the cloud - it's been fun to watch," noted Mike Loftus, VP Product Management and Marketing at Zentera Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Technology is enabling a new approach to collecting and using data. This approach, commonly referred to as the "Internet of Things" (IoT), enables businesses to use real-time data from all sorts of things including machines, devices and sensors to make better decisions, improve customer service, and lower the risk in the creation of new revenue opportunities. In his General Session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Dave Wagstaff, Vice President and Chief Architect at BSQUARE Corporation, discuss the ...
"ElasticBox is an enterprise company that makes it very easy for developers and IT ops to collaborate to develop, build and deploy applications on any cloud - private, public or hybrid," stated Monish Sharma, VP of Customer Success at ElasticBox, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Agility is top of mind for Cloud/Service providers and Enterprises alike. Policy Driven Data Center provides a policy model for application deployment by decoupling application needs from the underlying infrastructure primitives. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, David Klebanov, a Technical Solutions Architect with Cisco Systems, discussed how it differentiates from the software-defined top-down control by offering a declarative approach to allow faster and simpler application deployment. Davi...
Cloud Expo 2014 TV commercials will feature @ThingsExpo, which was launched in June, 2014 at New York City's Javits Center as the largest 'Internet of Things' event in the world.
Cloud Technology Partners on Wednesday announced it has been recognized by the Modern Infrastructure Impact Awards as one of the Best Amazon Web Services (AWS) Consulting Partners. Selected by the editors of TechTarget's SearchDataCenter.com, and by votes from customers and strategic channel partners, the companies acknowledged by the Modern Infrastructure Impact Awards represent the top providers of cloud consulting services for AWS including application migration, application development, inf...
“Will Jaya is a direct source for server integration and storage solutions. If you are looking for any specific configurations for a project we can help you configure based on your needs and requirements," explained Netty Goya, CEO of Will Jaya, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.