SYS-CON MEDIA Authors: Pat Romanski, Sean Houghton, Glenn Rossman, Ignacio M. Llorente, Xenia von Wedel

News Feed Item

Eight-Year Global Economic Expansion Expected Says BNY Mellon's Richard Hoey

Global Economic Growth Should Accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016

NEW YORK and LONDON, Jan. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- A long expansion in the global and U.S. economy is expected to last for a total of eight years (2009 to 2017) according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update entitled, "Eight-Year Economic Expansion."  Global GDP growth should accelerate by one-half to three-quarters of one percent faster than in 2012 and 2013.

"Because the global and U.S. economy grew at only a slow pace since the recession low in mid-2009, the upsurge of inflation that one would normally expect to occur after many years of economic expansion has not occurred," Hoey says.  "As a result, developed world monetary policy is not poised to become aggressively restrictive in order to stifle inflation any time soon, but rather can remain stimulative for an extended period of time.  It is true that the central banks of the U.S., Japan and the Eurozone are worried about inflation, but they are worried that inflation is too low."

While Hoey believes that inflation will rise eventually, he thinks it will drift higher only gradually over the coming years and that governments and central banks will be tolerant of that gradual upward drift in inflation. 

"We expect that a gradual upward drift in wage inflation, core inflation and reported inflation over the next several years is likely to be well-tolerated by (1) public opinion, (2) governments and (3) central banks," says Hoey.  "In the U.S., it has been three and a half decades since the double-digit inflation peak in 1980.  The share of labor compensation in GDP is near the lowest level in half a century.  In that context, a gradual upward drift in domestic wage inflation over the next several years should be well-tolerated by most and welcomed by many."

Other Economic Update findings include:

3 PHASES OF U.S. 8-YEAR ECONOMIC EXPANSION – Hoey believes that the U.S. economy is in a long "eight-year economic expansion" (2009-2017), with three phases: (1) four years of growth averaging about 2%, which ended in mid-2013, (2) a minimum of three years of growth averaging about 3% and (3) a slower pace of growth in the final quarters of the eight-year expansion. 

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN THE EUROZONE – While Hoey cites long-term Eurozone challenges, including an aging demographic, high energy prices, excess debt, an elevated currency due to its current account surplus and a fragile financial system in peripheral Europe, he expects a sustainable economic expansion in the Eurozone, with the pace of real GDP growth in 2014 in the 1% to 1.5% range. 

UNCERTAIN LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR JAPAN – While Japan faces a "very choppy year in 2014" due to the increase in the value-added tax scheduled for April 1, Hoey expects sharply declining economic activity for three or four months, followed by renewed expansion.  Hoey is more uncertain about the long-term outlook, given challenging demographics and debt ratios. 

GRADUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA – Hoey believes that the most complex issue in the global outlook for 2014 is the Chinese economic and financial outlook.  Stating that the Chinese government has a choice whether to rebalance the economy and financial system gradually or rapidly, Hoey expects Chinese 2014 economic growth can persist gradually at about the same pace as in 2013, roughly 7.5%. 

"Overall, we believe that global economic growth should accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016 to a growth rate one-half to three-quarters of 1% faster than in 2012 and 2013," Hoey concludes.  "We expect an 'eight-year economic expansion' in the global economy and the U.S. economy."

See http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/pdf/update.pdf  for Hoey's complete Economic Outlook.    

Notes to Editors:

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of December 31, 2013, BNY Mellon had $27.6 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.6 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon as of Dec. 31, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK, Europe and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the author as at the date of issue; are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice. BNYMAMI and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice.  Past performance is not a guide to future performance.  The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements.  When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.                                                                                                         

Contact:

Patrice Kozlowski

Sarah Deutscher


+1 212 922 6030

+44 20 763 2744


[email protected]

[email protected]

 

 

 

SOURCE BNY Mellon

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Verizon Enterprise Solutions is simplifying the cloud-purchasing experience for its clients, with the launch of Verizon Cloud Marketplace, a key foundational component of the company's robust ecosystem of enterprise-class technologies. The online storefront will initially feature pre-built cloud-based services from AppDynamics, Hitachi Data Systems, Juniper Networks, PfSense and Tervela. Available globally to enterprises using Verizon Cloud, Verizon Cloud Marketplace provides a one-stop shop fo...
“In the past year we've seen a lot of stabilization of WebRTC. You can now use it in production with a far greater degree of certainty. A lot of the real developments in the past year have been in things like the data channel, which will enable a whole new type of application," explained Peter Dunkley, Technical Director at Acision, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Windstream, a leading provider of advanced network and cloud communications, has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Windstream (Nasdaq: WIN), a FORTUNE 500 and S&P 500 company, is a leading provider of advanced network communications, including cloud computing and managed services, to businesses nationwide. The company also offers broadband, p...
The cloud is becoming the de-facto way for enterprises to leverage common infrastructure while innovating and one of the biggest obstacles facing public cloud computing is security. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Jeff Aliber, a global marketing executive at Verizon, discussed how the best place for web security is in the cloud. Benefits include: Functions as the first layer of defense Easy operation –CNAME change Implement an integrated solution Best architecture for addressing network-l...
The Internet of Things is not new. Historically, smart businesses have used its basic concept of leveraging data to drive better decision making and have capitalized on those insights to realize additional revenue opportunities. So, what has changed to make the Internet of Things one of the hottest topics in tech? In his session at @ThingsExpo, Chris Gray, Director, Embedded and Internet of Things, discussed the underlying factors that are driving the economics of intelligent systems. Discover ...
“We help people build clusters, in the classical sense of the cluster. We help people put a full stack on top of every single one of those machines. We do the full bare metal install," explained Greg Bruno, Vice President of Engineering and co-founder of StackIQ, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.

ARMONK, N.Y., Nov. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --  IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced that it is bringing a greater level of control, security and flexibility to cloud-based application development and delivery with a single-tenant version of Bluemix, IBM's

SYS-CON Events announced today that IDenticard will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. IDenticard™ is the security division of Brady Corp (NYSE: BRC), a $1.5 billion manufacturer of identification products. We have small-company values with the strength and stability of a major corporation. IDenticard offers local sales, support and service to our customers across the United States and Canada...
SYS-CON Events announced today that AIC, a leading provider of OEM/ODM server and storage solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. AIC is a leading provider of both standard OTS, off-the-shelf, and OEM/ODM server and storage solutions. With expert in-house design capabilities, validation, manufacturing and production, AIC's broad selection of products are highly flexible and are conf...
Leysin American School is an exclusive, private boarding school located in Leysin, Switzerland. Leysin selected an OpenStack-powered, private cloud as a service to manage multiple applications and provide development environments for students across the institution. Seeking to meet rigid data sovereignty and data integrity requirements while offering flexible, on-demand cloud resources to users, Leysin identified OpenStack as the clear choice to round out the school's cloud strategy. Additional...
DevOps Summit 2015 New York, co-located with the 16th International Cloud Expo - to be held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY - announces that it is now accepting Keynote Proposals. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long development cycles that produce software that is obsolete...
“DevOps is really about the business. The business is under pressure today, competitively in the marketplace to respond to the expectations of the customer. The business is driving IT and the problem is that IT isn't responding fast enough," explained Mark Levy, Senior Product Marketing Manager at Serena Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Mobile commerce traffic is surpassing desktop, yet less than 20% of sales in the U.S. are mobile commerce sales. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Dan Franklin, Segment Manager, Commerce, at Verizon Digital Media Services, defined mobile devices and discussed how next generation means simplification. It means taking your digital content and turning it into instantly gratifying experiences.
The major cloud platforms defy a simple, side-by-side analysis. Each of the major IaaS public-cloud platforms offers their own unique strengths and functionality. Options for on-site private cloud are diverse as well, and must be designed and deployed while taking existing legacy architecture and infrastructure into account. Then the reality is that most enterprises are embarking on a hybrid cloud strategy and programs. In this Power Panel at 15th Cloud Expo (http://www.CloudComputingExpo.com...
The move in recent years to cloud computing services and architectures has added significant pace to the application development and deployment environment. When enterprise IT can spin up large computing instances in just minutes, developers can also design and deploy in small time frames that were unimaginable a few years ago. The consequent move toward lean, agile, and fast development leads to the need for the development and operations sides to work very closely together. Thus, DevOps become...