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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Decreased in February

MUMBAI, India, March 19, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India decreased 0.3 percent in February. The index stands at 177.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in January and a 0.3 percent decrease in December. Four of the eight components contributed positively to the index in February.

Said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: "The Leading Economic Index for India registered a small decline in February, primarily due to exports and financial indicators, but its six-month growth rate has moved into positive territory for the first time since early 2013. Thus, the LEI is finally beginning to signal that the pace of economic activity could be poised to improve slightly in the first half of 2014 after persistent slow growth last year."

Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added: "Despite the remaining short-term challenges, this month's Leading Economic Index suggests a somewhat more positive economic climate in the months ahead. This, in turn, would provide a more favorable setting for the formulation of a new economic policy agenda following the upcoming general elections."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in February to 202.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in January and a 1.1 percent increase in December. Two of the four components contributed negatively to the index in February.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes



2013


2014

6-month


Dec

Jan

Feb

Aug to Feb






Leading Economic Index

176.5 r

177.8 p

177.3 p


   Percent Change

-0.3 r

0.7 p

-0.3 p

0.3

   Diffusion

37.5

75.0

56.3

62.5






Coincident Economic Index

201.2 r

201.5 r

202.1 p


   Percent Change

1.1

0.1 r

0.3 p

-2.1

   Diffusion

75.0

25.0

62.5

25.0






n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board     All Rights Reserved

SOURCE The Conference Board

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