SYS-CON MEDIA Authors: Vormetric Blog, Jason Bloomberg, Liz McMillan, Pat Romanski, Elizabeth White

News Feed Item

Saxo Bank Publishes its Investment Outlook for Q2 2014

HELLERUP, Denmark, April 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has published its second quarterly insight for 2014, focusing on the outlook for Europe.

European outlook: A United States of Europe? 

Following an abundance of false starts, the European economy is likely to encounter further challenges in Q2, Saxo Bank writes in its second quarterly insight for 2014. By the end of the second quarter, the European Central Bank is likely to grow increasingly concerned about deflation and the lack of growth and signal new quantitative easing and yet another set of unconventional measures.

As well, Europe faces its biggest electoral challenge since the 1970s, as the reality gap between Europe's voters and their EU-friendly politicians is wider than ever. At the May EU parliamentary elections, look for EU sceptic parties to form one of the largest overall blocs in the new European Parliament. If Brussels listens to voters, it could mark a decisive turning point for the failing EU experiment, even if for now, the political status quo is more likely to maintain the upper hand.

While the economic outlook appears to be improving for Spain, Portugal and Greece, this is really part of an internal transfer of problems from these 'Club Med' countries to France and soon Germany, which is likely to flirt with recession by the end of the year. France and Germany are also likely to suffer from reduced exports, particularly in the luxury goods sector, as Asian growth cools.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO for Saxo Bank, commented:

"The EU member countries have surprised with their political solidarity over the last few years of the EU crisis, but the electorate is growing restless and EU-sceptic parties are making huge inroads that the establishment must recognise. Beside this we have the eternal problem that the EU entirely lacks an economic foundation that is sound and long term. Here in early 2014, EU complacency has never been higher, just as real political and popular entropy is about to make its presence felt."

Global outlook: a 'state of flux' 

The 'Fragile Five" (South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey), which with the recent additions of Argentina, Russia and Chile have become the "Fragile Eight", are now in the process of rebalancing, as the Fed tapering has forced their currencies weaker and required policy tightening that will crimp growth and right the structural imbalances that have grown in recent years. This "state of flux" is a positive development overall, but too many countries and economies are trying to do the same thing simultaneously - devalue and increase exports - so growth is likely to weaken structurally and cyclically due to prior credit excesses.

As Jakobsen points outs, "We have been so focused on saving the world, the banks and the political system that we have underinvested in people, education, infrastructure, innovation and technology.

"It will not be the European Parliamentary elections that make or break the EU, but how the policymakers and their trusted mandarins respond to the slowdown and subsequent rebalancing of the world."

Key points on investments for 2014: 

Fixed income: core government bonds will be the only asset that is up Q1 2014 versus Q1 2015 (rebalancing and lack of productivity).

Foreign exchange: EURUSD will peak at about 1.4000/1.4050and then turn down to 1.2500 (the ECB should get active on deflation over the summer). USDJPY could see 95.00 on a VAT hike and initial signs of Abenomics failing. The "Fragile Eight" will drop another 5 percent.

Commodities: will do well through Q2 as real rates will drop, but could fall again heading into H1 2015.Will take profit in Q3 2014.

Equity: The S&P 500 will peak at about 1,900-1,950, then a 30 percent correction. Equities are the only asset not yet hurt by the changing economic cycle.

Consult Saxo Bank's full quarterly outlook for Steen Jakobsen's article in full, alongside additional outlooks for individual asset classeshttps://beta.tradingfloor.com/publications/quarterly-outlook

About Saxo Bank  

Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist, offering private investors and institutional clients a complete set of tools for their trading and investment strategies. Its financial community portal, TradingFloor.com, is the first multi-asset social trading platform. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives on our award-winning SaxoTrader platform, accessible on PCs, tablets or smartphones through a single account and available in more than 20 languages. The platform is white-labelled by more than 100 major financial institutions worldwide. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management as well as traditional banking services through Saxo Privatbank. Founded in 1992, Saxo Bank is headquartered in Copenhagen and has offices in 25 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and Australia.

SOURCE Saxo Bank

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Log data provides the most granular view into what is happening across your systems, applications, and end users. Logs can show you where the issues are in real-time, and provide a historical trending view over time. Logs give you the whole picture. Logentries, a log management and analytics service built for the cloud, has announced a new integration with Slack, the team communication platform, to enable real-time system and application monitoring. Users of both services can now receive real-...
At 15th Cloud Expo, Shrikant Pattathil, Executive Vice President at Harbinger Systems, demos a video delivery platform that helps you do interactive videos. He discusses how Harbinger is accomplishing it in the cloud world, the problems they faced and the choices they made to get around these problems.
“Will Jaya is a direct source for server integration and storage solutions. If you are looking for any specific configurations for a project we can help you configure based on your needs and requirements," explained Netty Goya, CEO of Will Jaya, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
“DevOps is really about the business. The business is under pressure today, competitively in the marketplace to respond to the expectations of the customer. The business is driving IT and the problem is that IT isn't responding fast enough," explained Mark Levy, Senior Product Marketing Manager at Serena Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
“The year of the cloud – we have no idea when it's really happening but we think it's happening now. For those technology providers like Zentera that are helping enterprises move to the cloud - it's been fun to watch," noted Mike Loftus, VP Product Management and Marketing at Zentera Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
IoT is still a vague buzzword for many people. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mike Kavis, Vice President & Principal Cloud Architect at Cloud Technology Partners, discussed the business value of IoT that goes far beyond the general public's perception that IoT is all about wearables and home consumer services. He also discussed how IoT is perceived by investors and how venture capitalist access this space. Other topics discussed were barriers to success, what is new, what is old, and what th...
Dale Kim is the Director of Industry Solutions at MapR. His background includes a variety of technical and management roles at information technology companies. While his experience includes work with relational databases, much of his career pertains to non-relational data in the areas of search, content management, and NoSQL, and includes senior roles in technical marketing, sales engineering, and support engineering. Dale holds an MBA from Santa Clara University, and a BA in Computer Science f...
The Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly in the process of breaking from its heretofore relatively obscure enterprise applications (such as plant floor control and supply chain management) and going mainstream into the consumer space. More and more creative folks are interconnecting everyday products such as household items, mobile devices, appliances and cars, and unleashing new and imaginative scenarios. We are seeing a lot of excitement around applications in home automation, personal fitness,...
Entuity®, a provider of enterprise-class network management solutions, today announced that it solidifies its position as a market leader through global enterprise customer acquisitions and a refined channel strategy. In 2014, Entuity increased new license revenues in EMEA by over 75 percent, and LATAM by over 125 percent as customers embraced Entuity for its highly automated solution and unified architecture. Entuity’s refined channel strategy focuses on even deeper strategic alignment with ke...
Almost everyone sees the potential of Internet of Things but how can businesses truly unlock that potential. The key will be in the ability to discover business insight in the midst of an ocean of Big Data generated from billions of embedded devices via Systems of Discover. Businesses will also need to ensure that they can sustain that insight by leveraging the cloud for global reach, scale and elasticity.
The 3rd International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 16th International Cloud Expo - to be held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY - announces that its Call for Papers is now open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago.
Cloud Technology Partners on Wednesday announced it has been recognized by the Modern Infrastructure Impact Awards as one of the Best Amazon Web Services (AWS) Consulting Partners. Selected by the editors of TechTarget's SearchDataCenter.com, and by votes from customers and strategic channel partners, the companies acknowledged by the Modern Infrastructure Impact Awards represent the top providers of cloud consulting services for AWS including application migration, application development, inf...
“We help people build clusters, in the classical sense of the cluster. We help people put a full stack on top of every single one of those machines. We do the full bare metal install," explained Greg Bruno, Vice President of Engineering and co-founder of StackIQ, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
"Blue Box has been around for 10-11 years, and last year we launched Blue Box Cloud. We like the term 'Private Cloud as a Service' because we think that embodies what we are launching as a product - it's a managed hosted private cloud," explained Giles Frith, Vice President of Customer Operations at Blue Box, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
In this demo at 15th Cloud Expo, John Meza, Product Engineer at Esri, showed how Esri products hook into Hadoop cluster to allow you to do spatial analysis on the spatial data within your cluster, and he demonstrated rendering from a data center with ArcGIS Pro, a new product that has a brand new rendering engine.