|By PR Newswire||
|April 3, 2014 04:44 AM EDT||
HELLERUP, Denmark, April 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has published its second quarterly insight for 2014, focusing on the outlook for Europe.
European outlook: A United States of Europe?
Following an abundance of false starts, the European economy is likely to encounter further challenges in Q2, Saxo Bank writes in its second quarterly insight for 2014. By the end of the second quarter, the European Central Bank is likely to grow increasingly concerned about deflation and the lack of growth and signal new quantitative easing and yet another set of unconventional measures.
As well, Europe faces its biggest electoral challenge since the 1970s, as the reality gap between Europe's voters and their EU-friendly politicians is wider than ever. At the May EU parliamentary elections, look for EU sceptic parties to form one of the largest overall blocs in the new European Parliament. If Brussels listens to voters, it could mark a decisive turning point for the failing EU experiment, even if for now, the political status quo is more likely to maintain the upper hand.
While the economic outlook appears to be improving for Spain, Portugal and Greece, this is really part of an internal transfer of problems from these 'Club Med' countries to France and soon Germany, which is likely to flirt with recession by the end of the year. France and Germany are also likely to suffer from reduced exports, particularly in the luxury goods sector, as Asian growth cools.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO for Saxo Bank, commented:
"The EU member countries have surprised with their political solidarity over the last few years of the EU crisis, but the electorate is growing restless and EU-sceptic parties are making huge inroads that the establishment must recognise. Beside this we have the eternal problem that the EU entirely lacks an economic foundation that is sound and long term. Here in early 2014, EU complacency has never been higher, just as real political and popular entropy is about to make its presence felt."
Global outlook: a 'state of flux'
The 'Fragile Five" (South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey), which with the recent additions of Argentina, Russia and Chile have become the "Fragile Eight", are now in the process of rebalancing, as the Fed tapering has forced their currencies weaker and required policy tightening that will crimp growth and right the structural imbalances that have grown in recent years. This "state of flux" is a positive development overall, but too many countries and economies are trying to do the same thing simultaneously - devalue and increase exports - so growth is likely to weaken structurally and cyclically due to prior credit excesses.
As Jakobsen points outs, "We have been so focused on saving the world, the banks and the political system that we have underinvested in people, education, infrastructure, innovation and technology.
"It will not be the European Parliamentary elections that make or break the EU, but how the policymakers and their trusted mandarins respond to the slowdown and subsequent rebalancing of the world."
Key points on investments for 2014:
Fixed income: core government bonds will be the only asset that is up Q1 2014 versus Q1 2015 (rebalancing and lack of productivity).
Foreign exchange: EURUSD will peak at about 1.4000/1.4050and then turn down to 1.2500 (the ECB should get active on deflation over the summer). USDJPY could see 95.00 on a VAT hike and initial signs of Abenomics failing. The "Fragile Eight" will drop another 5 percent.
Commodities: will do well through Q2 as real rates will drop, but could fall again heading into H1 2015.Will take profit in Q3 2014.
Equity: The S&P 500 will peak at about 1,900-1,950, then a 30 percent correction. Equities are the only asset not yet hurt by the changing economic cycle.
Consult Saxo Bank's full quarterly outlook for Steen Jakobsen's article in full, alongside additional outlooks for individual asset classes: https://beta.tradingfloor.com/publications/quarterly-outlook
About Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist, offering private investors and institutional clients a complete set of tools for their trading and investment strategies. Its financial community portal, TradingFloor.com, is the first multi-asset social trading platform. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives on our award-winning SaxoTrader platform, accessible on PCs, tablets or smartphones through a single account and available in more than 20 languages. The platform is white-labelled by more than 100 major financial institutions worldwide. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management as well as traditional banking services through Saxo Privatbank. Founded in 1992, Saxo Bank is headquartered in Copenhagen and has offices in 25 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and Australia.
SOURCE Saxo Bank
Verizon Enterprise Solutions is simplifying the cloud-purchasing experience for its clients, with the launch of Verizon Cloud Marketplace, a key foundational component of the company's robust ecosystem of enterprise-class technologies. The online storefront will initially feature pre-built cloud-based services from AppDynamics, Hitachi Data Systems, Juniper Networks, PfSense and Tervela. Available globally to enterprises using Verizon Cloud, Verizon Cloud Marketplace provides a one-stop shop fo...
Dec. 20, 2014 09:00 AM EST Reads: 1,895
AppZero has announced that its award-winning application migration software is now fully qualified within the Microsoft Azure Certified program. AppZero has undergone extensive technical evaluation with Microsoft Corp., earning its designation as Microsoft Azure Certified. As a result of AppZero's work with Microsoft, customers are able to easily find, purchase and deploy AppZero from the Azure Marketplace. With just a few clicks, users have an Azure-based solution for moving applications to the...
Dec. 20, 2014 09:00 AM EST Reads: 877
“In the past year we've seen a lot of stabilization of WebRTC. You can now use it in production with a far greater degree of certainty. A lot of the real developments in the past year have been in things like the data channel, which will enable a whole new type of application," explained Peter Dunkley, Technical Director at Acision, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 20, 2014 08:00 AM EST Reads: 1,237
SYS-CON Events announced today Isomorphic Software, the global leader in high-end, web-based business applications, will exhibit at SYS-CON's DevOps Summit 2015 New York, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Isomorphic Software is the global leader in high-end, web-based business applications. We develop, market, and support the SmartClient & Smart GWT HTML5/Ajax platform, combining the productivity and performance of traditional desktop software ...
Dec. 20, 2014 07:00 AM EST Reads: 957
SYS-CON Events announced today that IDenticard will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. IDenticard™ is the security division of Brady Corp (NYSE: BRC), a $1.5 billion manufacturer of identification products. We have small-company values with the strength and stability of a major corporation. IDenticard offers local sales, support and service to our customers across the United States and Canada...
Dec. 20, 2014 07:00 AM EST Reads: 2,051
SYS-CON Events announced today that AIC, a leading provider of OEM/ODM server and storage solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. AIC is a leading provider of both standard OTS, off-the-shelf, and OEM/ODM server and storage solutions. With expert in-house design capabilities, validation, manufacturing and production, AIC's broad selection of products are highly flexible and are conf...
Dec. 20, 2014 07:00 AM EST Reads: 1,827
Leysin American School is an exclusive, private boarding school located in Leysin, Switzerland. Leysin selected an OpenStack-powered, private cloud as a service to manage multiple applications and provide development environments for students across the institution. Seeking to meet rigid data sovereignty and data integrity requirements while offering flexible, on-demand cloud resources to users, Leysin identified OpenStack as the clear choice to round out the school's cloud strategy. Additional...
Dec. 20, 2014 06:30 AM EST Reads: 1,917
The BPM world is going through some evolution or changes where traditional business process management solutions really have nowhere to go in terms of development of the road map. In this demo at 15th Cloud Expo, Kyle Hansen, Director of Professional Services at AgilePoint, shows AgilePoint’s unique approach to dealing with this market circumstance by developing a rapid application composition or development framework.
Dec. 20, 2014 06:00 AM EST Reads: 965
The cloud is becoming the de-facto way for enterprises to leverage common infrastructure while innovating and one of the biggest obstacles facing public cloud computing is security. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Jeff Aliber, a global marketing executive at Verizon, discussed how the best place for web security is in the cloud. Benefits include: Functions as the first layer of defense Easy operation –CNAME change Implement an integrated solution Best architecture for addressing network-l...
Dec. 20, 2014 05:00 AM EST Reads: 1,262
“We help people build clusters, in the classical sense of the cluster. We help people put a full stack on top of every single one of those machines. We do the full bare metal install," explained Greg Bruno, Vice President of Engineering and co-founder of StackIQ, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 19, 2014 11:45 PM EST Reads: 1,268
The major cloud platforms defy a simple, side-by-side analysis. Each of the major IaaS public-cloud platforms offers their own unique strengths and functionality. Options for on-site private cloud are diverse as well, and must be designed and deployed while taking existing legacy architecture and infrastructure into account. Then the reality is that most enterprises are embarking on a hybrid cloud strategy and programs. In this Power Panel at 15th Cloud Expo (http://www.CloudComputingExpo.com...
Dec. 19, 2014 11:30 AM EST Reads: 2,324
"BSQUARE is in the business of selling software solutions for smart connected devices. It's obvious that IoT has moved from being a technology to being a fundamental part of business, and in the last 18 months people have said let's figure out how to do it and let's put some focus on it, " explained Dave Wagstaff, VP & Chief Architect, at BSQUARE Corporation, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Nov 4-6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 19, 2014 11:00 AM EST Reads: 1,886
The move in recent years to cloud computing services and architectures has added significant pace to the application development and deployment environment. When enterprise IT can spin up large computing instances in just minutes, developers can also design and deploy in small time frames that were unimaginable a few years ago. The consequent move toward lean, agile, and fast development leads to the need for the development and operations sides to work very closely together. Thus, DevOps become...
Dec. 19, 2014 10:00 AM EST Reads: 1,984
SYS-CON Media announced today that Aruna Ravichandran, VP of Marketing, Application Performance Management and DevOps at CA Technologies, has joined DevOps Journal’s authors. DevOps Journal is focused on this critical enterprise IT topic in the world of cloud computing. DevOps Journal brings valuable information to DevOps professionals who are transforming the way enterprise IT is done. Aruna's inaugural article "Four Essential Cultural Hacks for DevOps Newbies" discusses how to demonstrate the...
Dec. 19, 2014 10:00 AM EST Reads: 1,700
"Our premise is Docker is not enough. That's not a bad thing - we actually love Docker. At ActiveState all our products are based on open source technology and Docker is an up-and-coming piece of open source technology," explained Bart Copeland, President & CEO of ActiveState Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit at Cloud Expo®, held Nov 4-6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 19, 2014 09:00 AM EST Reads: 1,905