|By PR Newswire||
|August 4, 2014 10:05 AM EDT||
LONDON, Aug. 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportbuyer.com has added a new market research report:
T he US economy will accelerate slightly this year, with real GDP growth increasing to 2.1% from 1.9% in 2013. Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports. The federal government's fiscal accounts will show another year of substantial improvement, due to stronger revenue collection and continued fiscal restraint due to the budget sequester. We forecast the deficit will narrow to 3.0% of GDP from 4.0% of GDP in 2013. S tronger domestic oil and gas production will reduce the need for imported energy again in 2014, but this dynamic will be offset by accelerating domestic economic activity, which will boost imports. We forecast a current account deficit of 2.2% of GDP in 2014, the narrowest since 1997.
We continue to believe that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its current quantitative easing programme by end-2014, despite weak economic data in the first quarter of the year. That said, we acknowledge that substantial slack remains in the labour market, and in light of a weak inflation outlook we do not anticipate the first hike to the Fed funds rate until H215. We believe that Republicans are heavily favoured to retain control of the US House of Representatives and slightly favoured to take control of the Senate from Democrats in November mid-term elections. As a result, we believe the final two years of President Barack Obama's second term will be marked by renewed legislative efforts by Republicans to roll back key parts of the Affordable Care Act health reform law, his signature legislative achievement, as well as the potential for additional tax and spending cuts. Such initiatives could set the stage for a return of the type of legislative brinksmanship that has become common in recent years, elevating policy risk substantially.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our 2014 real GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. The downward revision is due to base effects from a 2.9% contraction in Q114. We do not believe that this weak growth print was the start of a sustained slowdown in the US economy. W e expect the current account shortfall to narrow only slightly this year, forecasting a 2.2% of GDP deficit in 2014, compared to our earlier forecast of 2.1%. The slower narrowing is due to a weaker goods trade account through the first five months of 2014.
Executive Summary.... 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis.... 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings. 7
Domestic Politics .... 8
First-Ever House Majority Leader Defeat Makes Compromise Less Likely....8
The defeat of US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor by a virtually unknown challenger will set back bipartisan efforts on immigration
reform and raise the spectre of a return to the politics of brinksmanship that had become prevalent in recent years on the budget, taxes,
and debt policy.
table: political overview....8
Foreign Policy 9
US Geopolitical Reversals Temporary, Iran And SE Asia Offer Opportunities...9
The US's geopolitical influence will continue to weaken over the next few years due to setbacks in Ukraine and the Levant. However,
over the long term, Washington has major opportunities to strengthen its position through a rapprochement with Iran and closer ties with
South East Asian states, as well as India.
Long-Term Political Outlook 12
Tough Challenges In The Coming Years..12
The 2010s continue to be challenging for the US, mainly due to the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession and several unresolved foreign
policy issues. Meanwhile, two of the main trends in US politics will be the rise of the south-western states and Hispanic-Americans as key
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 15
SWOT Analysis.. 15
BMI Economic Risk Ratings. 15
Economic Activity.. 16
Only A Slight Acceleration Due To Q1 GDP Contraction.16
The US economy's Q114 real GDP contraction of 2.9% will yield to positive growth over the coming quarters, as labour market
tightening and strong consumer confidence bolster household spending, and fixed investment picks up. The base effects from weak Q1
growth, however, have prompted us to revise down our 2014 real GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.1%, implying only a slight acceleration
from 1.9% growth in 2013.
table: GDP By Expenditure 16
Exchange Rate Policy 18
USD: Current Account And Monetary Normalisation To Bolster Dollar..18
The US dollar is approaching or testing key support levels against the euro and the pound sterling, which we expect to hold, forecasting
the dollar to appreciate against both currencies in H214 and into 2015.
table: BMI Currency Forecast...18
Balance Of Payments . 20
Current Account Deficit Narrowing To Resume In H214..20
A multi-year trend of strong growth in domestic energy production will continue to narrow the US current account deficit over the next
several years. However, weaker than expected trade dynamics in Q114 have caused us to revise our 2014 current account forecast
from a deficit of 2.1% of GDP to 2.2% of GDP, only slightly narrower than the 2.3% deficit recorded in 2013.
table: Current Account20
Fiscal Policy . 22
Budget Shortfall To Narrow To Long-Term Average In 201422
The US federal budget deficit will narrow from 4.0% of GDP in 2013 to 3.0% in 2014 due to another year of fairly strong revenues, the
result of greater payroll and income taxes, as well as what we forecast will be no growth in spending this year.
table: Fiscal Policy....23
Monetary Policy 25
Taper Over In H214, First Hikes In H215..25
Strengthening macroeconomic data will enable the US Federal Reserve to conclude its asset purchasing programme by end-2014. We
expect the first rate hikes in H215, brin ging the Fed funds rate to 0.75% by the end of 2015.
table: Monetary Policy 25
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 27
The US Economy To 2023.... 27
Slowing Growth Over The Next Decade...27
The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.4% as deleveraging from a massive
credit binge and demographic shifts takes their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest
economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts..27
Chapter 4: Business Environment 31
SWOT Analysis.. 31
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 31
Business Environment Outlook 32
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS...32
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGs33
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY.34
Market Orientation.. 35
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS....35
Operational Risk 36
table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 36
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 39
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare.. 39
table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts40
table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 41
table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts .... 41
table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 42
table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 43
table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts . 44
table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts.. 44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 47
Global Outlook... 47
Global Recovery Still On Track..47
Table: Global Assumptions....47
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %.48
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %.. 48
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %49
Read the full report:
For more information:
Research Advisor at Reportbuyer.com
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +44 208 816 85 48
The 3rd International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 16th International Cloud Expo - to be held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY - announces that its Call for Papers is now open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago.
Nov. 28, 2014 05:00 PM EST Reads: 1,314
"We help companies that are using a lot of Software as a Service. We help companies manage and gain visibility into what people are using inside the company and decide to secure them or use standards to lock down or to embrace the adoption of SaaS inside the company," explained Scott Kriz, Co-founder and CEO of Bitium, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Nov. 27, 2014 07:00 PM EST Reads: 1,471
15th Cloud Expo, which took place Nov. 4-6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, expanded the conference content of @ThingsExpo, Big Data Expo, and DevOps Summit to include two developer events. IBM held a Bluemix Developer Playground on November 5 and ElasticBox held a Hackathon on November 6. Both events took place on the expo floor. The Bluemix Developer Playground, for developers of all levels, highlighted the ease of use of Bluemix, its services and functionalit...
Nov. 27, 2014 07:00 PM EST Reads: 1,435
The 4th International DevOps Summit, co-located with16th International Cloud Expo – being held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY – announces that its Call for Papers is now open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's large...
Nov. 27, 2014 06:00 PM EST Reads: 1,834
Some developers believe that monitoring is a function of the operations team. Some operations teams firmly believe that monitoring the systems they maintain is sufficient to run the business successfully. Most of them are wrong. The complexity of today's applications have gone far and beyond the capabilities of "traditional" system-level monitoring tools and approaches and requires much broader knowledge of business and applications as a whole. The goal of DevOps is to connect all aspects of app...
Nov. 27, 2014 06:00 PM EST Reads: 1,244
SAP is delivering break-through innovation combined with fantastic user experience powered by the market-leading in-memory technology, SAP HANA. In his General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Thorsten Leiduck, VP ISVs & Digital Commerce, SAP, discussed how SAP and partners provide cloud and hybrid cloud solutions as well as real-time Big Data offerings that help companies of all sizes and industries run better. SAP launched an application challenge to award the most innovative SAP HANA and SAP HANA...
Nov. 27, 2014 05:00 PM EST Reads: 1,405
When an enterprise builds a hybrid IaaS cloud connecting its data center to one or more public clouds, security is often a major topic along with the other challenges involved. Security is closely intertwined with the networking choices made for the hybrid cloud. Traditional networking approaches for building a hybrid cloud try to kludge together the enterprise infrastructure with the public cloud. Consequently this approach requires risky, deep "surgery" including changes to firewalls, subnets...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:45 PM EST Reads: 1,303
Want to enable self-service provisioning of application environments in minutes that mirror production? Can you automatically provide rich data with code-level detail back to the developers when issues occur in production? In his session at DevOps Summit, David Tesar, Microsoft Technical Evangelist on Microsoft Azure and DevOps, will discuss how to accomplish this and more utilizing technologies such as Microsoft Azure, Visual Studio online, and Application Insights in this demo-heavy session.
Nov. 27, 2014 04:45 PM EST Reads: 1,250
DevOps is all about agility. However, you don't want to be on a high-speed bus to nowhere. The right DevOps approach controls velocity with a tight feedback loop that not only consists of operational data but also incorporates business context. With a business context in the decision making, the right business priorities are incorporated, which results in a higher value creation. In his session at DevOps Summit, Todd Rader, Solutions Architect at AppDynamics, discussed key monitoring techniques...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:30 PM EST Reads: 1,307
Cultural, regulatory, environmental, political and economic (CREPE) conditions over the past decade are creating cross-industry solution spaces that require processes and technologies from both the Internet of Things (IoT), and Data Management and Analytics (DMA). These solution spaces are evolving into Sensor Analytics Ecosystems (SAE) that represent significant new opportunities for organizations of all types. Public Utilities throughout the world, providing electricity, natural gas and water,...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:00 PM EST Reads: 1,376
The security devil is always in the details of the attack: the ones you've endured, the ones you prepare yourself to fend off, and the ones that, you fear, will catch you completely unaware and defenseless. The Internet of Things (IoT) is nothing if not an endless proliferation of details. It's the vision of a world in which continuous Internet connectivity and addressability is embedded into a growing range of human artifacts, into the natural world, and even into our smartphones, appliances, a...
Nov. 27, 2014 04:00 PM EST Reads: 1,720
How do APIs and IoT relate? The answer is not as simple as merely adding an API on top of a dumb device, but rather about understanding the architectural patterns for implementing an IoT fabric. There are typically two or three trends: Exposing the device to a management framework Exposing that management framework to a business centric logic Exposing that business layer and data to end users. This last trend is the IoT stack, which involves a new shift in the separation of what stuff happe...
Nov. 27, 2014 03:00 PM EST Reads: 1,386
The Internet of Things is tied together with a thin strand that is known as time. Coincidentally, at the core of nearly all data analytics is a timestamp. When working with time series data there are a few core principles that everyone should consider, especially across datasets where time is the common boundary. In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Jim Scott, Director of Enterprise Strategy & Architecture at MapR Technologies, discussed single-value, geo-spatial, and log time series dat...
Nov. 27, 2014 03:00 PM EST Reads: 1,523
An entirely new security model is needed for the Internet of Things, or is it? Can we save some old and tested controls for this new and different environment? In his session at @ThingsExpo, New York's at the Javits Center, Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, reviewed hands-on lessons with IoT devices and reveal a new risk balance you might not expect. Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, has more than nineteen years' experience managing global security operations and asse...
Nov. 27, 2014 01:00 PM EST Reads: 1,718
The Internet of Things will greatly expand the opportunities for data collection and new business models driven off of that data. In her session at @ThingsExpo, Esmeralda Swartz, CMO of MetraTech, discussed how for this to be effective you not only need to have infrastructure and operational models capable of utilizing this new phenomenon, but increasingly service providers will need to convince a skeptical public to participate. Get ready to show them the money!
Nov. 27, 2014 11:00 AM EST Reads: 1,333