SYS-CON MEDIA Authors: Craig Ferril, Xenia von Wedel, Peter Silva, Glenn Rossman, Ava Smith

News Feed Item

United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

LONDON, Aug. 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportbuyer.com has added a new market research report:

United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/north_america/usa/united_states_business_forecast_report_q4.html

Core Views

T he US economy will accelerate slightly this year, with real GDP growth increasing to 2.1% from 1.9% in 2013. Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports. The federal government's fiscal accounts will show another year of substantial improvement, due to stronger revenue collection and continued fiscal restraint due to the budget sequester. We forecast the deficit will narrow to 3.0% of GDP from 4.0% of GDP in 2013. S tronger domestic oil and gas production will reduce the need for imported energy again in 2014, but this dynamic will be offset by accelerating domestic economic activity, which will boost imports. We forecast a current account deficit of 2.2% of GDP in 2014, the narrowest since 1997.

We continue to believe that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its current quantitative easing programme by end-2014, despite weak economic data in the first quarter of the year. That said, we acknowledge that substantial slack remains in the labour market, and in light of a weak inflation outlook we do not anticipate the first hike to the Fed funds rate until H215. We believe that Republicans are heavily favoured to retain control of the US House of Representatives and slightly favoured to take control of the Senate from Democrats in November mid-term elections. As a result, we believe the final two years of President Barack Obama's second term will be marked by renewed legislative efforts by Republicans to roll back key parts of the Affordable Care Act health reform law, his signature legislative achievement, as well as the potential for additional tax and spending cuts. Such initiatives could set the stage for a return of the type of legislative brinksmanship that has become common in recent years, elevating policy risk substantially.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our 2014 real GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. The downward revision is due to base effects from a 2.9% contraction in Q114. We do not believe that this weak growth print was the start of a sustained slowdown in the US economy. W e expect the current account shortfall to narrow only slightly this year, forecasting a 2.2% of GDP deficit in 2014, compared to our earlier forecast of 2.1%. The slower narrowing is due to a weaker goods trade account through the first five months of 2014.

Executive Summary.... 5

Core Views..5

Chapter 1: Political Outlook.. 7

SWOT Analysis.... 7

BMI Political Risk Ratings. 7

Domestic Politics .... 8

First-Ever House Majority Leader Defeat Makes Compromise Less Likely....8

The defeat of US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor by a virtually unknown challenger will set back bipartisan efforts on immigration

reform and raise the spectre of a return to the politics of brinksmanship that had become prevalent in recent years on the budget, taxes,

and debt policy.

table: political overview....8

Foreign Policy 9

US Geopolitical Reversals Temporary, Iran And SE Asia Offer Opportunities...9

The US's geopolitical influence will continue to weaken over the next few years due to setbacks in Ukraine and the Levant. However,

over the long term, Washington has major opportunities to strengthen its position through a rapprochement with Iran and closer ties with

South East Asian states, as well as India.

Long-Term Political Outlook 12

Tough Challenges In The Coming Years..12

The 2010s continue to be challenging for the US, mainly due to the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession and several unresolved foreign

policy issues. Meanwhile, two of the main trends in US politics will be the rise of the south-western states and Hispanic-Americans as key

forces.

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 15

SWOT Analysis.. 15

BMI Economic Risk Ratings. 15

Economic Activity.. 16

Only A Slight Acceleration Due To Q1 GDP Contraction.16

The US economy's Q114 real GDP contraction of 2.9% will yield to positive growth over the coming quarters, as labour market

tightening and strong consumer confidence bolster household spending, and fixed investment picks up. The base effects from weak Q1

growth, however, have prompted us to revise down our 2014 real GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.1%, implying only a slight acceleration

from 1.9% growth in 2013.

table: GDP By Expenditure 16

Exchange Rate Policy 18

USD: Current Account And Monetary Normalisation To Bolster Dollar..18

The US dollar is approaching or testing key support levels against the euro and the pound sterling, which we expect to hold, forecasting

the dollar to appreciate against both currencies in H214 and into 2015.

table: BMI Currency Forecast...18

Balance Of Payments . 20

Current Account Deficit Narrowing To Resume In H214..20

A multi-year trend of strong growth in domestic energy production will continue to narrow the US current account deficit over the next

several years. However, weaker than expected trade dynamics in Q114 have caused us to revise our 2014 current account forecast

from a deficit of 2.1% of GDP to 2.2% of GDP, only slightly narrower than the 2.3% deficit recorded in 2013.

table: Current Account20

Fiscal Policy . 22

Budget Shortfall To Narrow To Long-Term Average In 201422

The US federal budget deficit will narrow from 4.0% of GDP in 2013 to 3.0% in 2014 due to another year of fairly strong revenues, the

result of greater payroll and income taxes, as well as what we forecast will be no growth in spending this year.

table: Fiscal Policy....23

Monetary Policy 25

Taper Over In H214, First Hikes In H215..25

Strengthening macroeconomic data will enable the US Federal Reserve to conclude its asset purchasing programme by end-2014. We

expect the first rate hikes in H215, brin ging the Fed funds rate to 0.75% by the end of 2015.

table: Monetary Policy 25

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 27

The US Economy To 2023.... 27

Slowing Growth Over The Next Decade...27

The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.4% as deleveraging from a massive

credit binge and demographic shifts takes their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest

economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.

TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts..27

Chapter 4: Business Environment 31

SWOT Analysis.. 31

BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 31

Business Environment Outlook 32

Institutions.... 32

TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS...32

Infrastructure 33

TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGs33

TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY.34

Market Orientation.. 35

TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS....35

Operational Risk 36

table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 36

Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 39

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare.. 39

table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts40

table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 41

table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts .... 41

Telecommunications... 42

table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 42

table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 43

table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts . 44

table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts.. 44

Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 47

Global Outlook... 47

Global Recovery Still On Track..47

Table: Global Assumptions....47

Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %.48

Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %.. 48

Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %49

 

 

Read the full report:

United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/north_america/usa/united_states_business_forecast_report_q4.html

For more information:

Sarah Smith

Research Advisor at Reportbuyer.com

Email: [email protected]

Tel: +44 208 816 85 48

Website: www.reportbuyer.com

 

SOURCE ReportBuyer

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
SYS-CON Events announced today that Windstream, a leading provider of advanced network and cloud communications, has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Windstream (Nasdaq: WIN), a FORTUNE 500 and S&P 500 company, is a leading provider of advanced network communications, including cloud computing and managed services, to businesses nationwide. The company also offers broadband, p...
The 4th International DevOps Summit, co-located with16th International Cloud Expo – being held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY – announces that its Call for Papers is now open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's large...
"There is a natural synchronization between the business models, the IoT is there to support ,” explained Brendan O'Brien, Co-founder and Chief Architect of Aria Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at the 15th International Cloud Expo®, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Verizon Enterprise Solutions is simplifying the cloud-purchasing experience for its clients, with the launch of Verizon Cloud Marketplace, a key foundational component of the company's robust ecosystem of enterprise-class technologies. The online storefront will initially feature pre-built cloud-based services from AppDynamics, Hitachi Data Systems, Juniper Networks, PfSense and Tervela. Available globally to enterprises using Verizon Cloud, Verizon Cloud Marketplace provides a one-stop shop fo...
Leysin American School is an exclusive, private boarding school located in Leysin, Switzerland. Leysin selected an OpenStack-powered, private cloud as a service to manage multiple applications and provide development environments for students across the institution. Seeking to meet rigid data sovereignty and data integrity requirements while offering flexible, on-demand cloud resources to users, Leysin identified OpenStack as the clear choice to round out the school's cloud strategy. Additional...
The major cloud platforms defy a simple, side-by-side analysis. Each of the major IaaS public-cloud platforms offers their own unique strengths and functionality. Options for on-site private cloud are diverse as well, and must be designed and deployed while taking existing legacy architecture and infrastructure into account. Then the reality is that most enterprises are embarking on a hybrid cloud strategy and programs. In this Power Panel at 15th Cloud Expo (http://www.CloudComputingExpo.com...
We are all here because we are sold on the transformative promise of The Cloud. But what good is all of this ephemeral, on-demand infrastructure if your usage doesn't actually improve the agility and speed of your business? How must Operations adapt in order to avoid stifling your Cloud initiative? In his session at DevOps Summit, Damon Edwards, co-founder and managing partner of the DTO Solutions, will highlight the successful organizational, process, and tooling patterns of high-performing c...
The definition of IoT is not new, in fact it’s been around for over a decade. What has changed is the public's awareness that the technology we use on a daily basis has caught up on the vision of an always on, always connected world. If you look into the details of what comprises the IoT, you’ll see that it includes everything from cloud computing, Big Data analytics, “Things,” Web communication, applications, network, storage, etc. It is essentially including everything connected online from ha...
Software-driven innovation is becoming a primary approach to how businesses create and deliver new value to customers. A survey of 400 business and IT executives by the IBM Institute for Business Value showed businesses that are more effective at software delivery are also more profitable than their peers nearly 70 percent of the time (1). DevOps provides a way for businesses to remain competitive, applying lean and agile principles to software development to speed the delivery of software that ...
Docker offers a new, lightweight approach to application portability. Applications are shipped using a common container format and managed with a high-level API. Their processes run within isolated namespaces that abstract the operating environment independently of the distribution, versions, network setup, and other details of this environment. This "containerization" has often been nicknamed "the new virtualization." But containers are more than lightweight virtual machines. Beyond their small...
The move in recent years to cloud computing services and architectures has added significant pace to the application development and deployment environment. When enterprise IT can spin up large computing instances in just minutes, developers can also design and deploy in small time frames that were unimaginable a few years ago. The consequent move toward lean, agile, and fast development leads to the need for the development and operations sides to work very closely together. Thus, DevOps become...
Cloud Expo 2014 TV commercials will feature @ThingsExpo, which was launched in June, 2014 at New York City's Javits Center as the largest 'Internet of Things' event in the world.

ARMONK, N.Y., Nov. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --  IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced that it is bringing a greater level of control, security and flexibility to cloud-based application development and delivery with a single-tenant version of Bluemix, IBM's

An entirely new security model is needed for the Internet of Things, or is it? Can we save some old and tested controls for this new and different environment? In his session at @ThingsExpo, New York's at the Javits Center, Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, reviewed hands-on lessons with IoT devices and reveal a new risk balance you might not expect. Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, has more than nineteen years' experience managing global security operations and asse...
Explosive growth in connected devices. Enormous amounts of data for collection and analysis. Critical use of data for split-second decision making and actionable information. All three are factors in making the Internet of Things a reality. Yet, any one factor would have an IT organization pondering its infrastructure strategy. How should your organization enhance its IT framework to enable an Internet of Things implementation? In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, James Kirkland, Chief Ar...