SYS-CON MEDIA Authors: Elizabeth White, Yeshim Deniz, Glenn Rossman, Pat Romanski, Cynthia Dunlop

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The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: concise trends and forecasts (6 countries) 2014-2019

NEW YORK, Sept. 1, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: concise trends and forecasts (6 countries) 2014–2019

http://www.reportlinker.com/p02313392/The-Central-and-Eastern-Europe-telecoms-market-concise-trends-and-forecasts-6-countries-2014–2019.html

Smart devices and new-generation fixed and mobile networks will improve the customer mix in Central and Eastern Europe, but this will not entirely compensate for competitive and EU regulatory pressure.

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)Telecoms service revenue peaked in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2012 – 5 years after it did so in Western Europe (WE) – before beginning to decline. This 5-year lag will be even shorter for the revenue streams – messaging and non-handset mobile broadband – that are declining because of smartphone adoption. Smartphone take-up has been rapid in CEE, accelerating the rate at which OTT services have replaced SMS usage, and driving the replacement of USB modems with tethering – trends that increasingly closely mirror those in WE.

This report and accompanying data annex provide:
-a full update of our 5-year forecast of 250 mobile and fixed key performance indicators (KPIs) for CEE as a whole and for 14 individual countries
-an explanation of the key drivers and assumptions that underpin the forecasts, along with discussion of the implications for fixed and mobile operators
-an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts for the region, which were published in December 2013.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverage

Central and Eastern Europe

Countries modelled individually
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Turkey
Ukraine

Countries modelled as part of the region as a whole
Albania
Belarus
Bosnia
Macedonia
Moldova
Montenegro
Serbia

Contents

7.Executive summary

8.Telecoms operators in Central and Eastern Europe are facing the same challenges of market maturity as those in Western Europe

9.Smartphones and new-generation networks will improve the customer mix, but will not fully offset competitive and regulatory pressure

10.Mobile handset data will be the single largest source of revenue growth during the next 5 years, driven by smartphone take-up

11.Mobile revenue will decline more than fixed in all countries in CEE during the forecast period because of intense competition in the mobile market

12.Forecast revision: We have reduced our forecast for CEE revenue in 2018 by 1% to reflect an even more negative scenario for mobile voice services

13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market

14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market

15.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

16.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

17.70% of fixed broadband connections will be on next-generation networks in the CEE region by 2019, while LTE will account for 32% of mobile SIMs

18.Russia, Turkey and Poland accounted for 69% of the region's telecoms service revenue in 2013

19.Handset population penetration in CEE will peak in 2015 and decline after that, because we expect multiple-SIM adoption to drop

20.Mobile penetration will decline in Russia and Poland because multiple-SIM ownership will drop and broadband will peak in 2015 and 2017

21.The transition to LTE is underway: take-up will be slow in 2014–2015, but will gain momentum to account for 32% of connections in 2019

22.Smartphones will account for at least 75% of handsets in all CEE countries except Ukraine by 2019, and LTE is not yet available in Turkey

23.Mobile ARPU will decline in all countries during the forecast period, including Turkey (peak in 2013) and Russia (peak in 2014)

24.Fixed services: FTTH/B connections will increase and fibre will account for 63% of the 15 million fixed broadband net additions by 2019

25.Fixed broadband penetration: Growth will be strongest in Russia and increased competition will drive penetration in Turkey

26.Mobile handset data revenue in CEE will double by 2019, driven by smartphones, strong appetite for data services, and high-speed coverage

27.Turkey will increase its contribution to the CEE region's telecoms service revenue in 2019

28.Telecoms revenue growth rates in the non-EU countries in the region are higher than in those countries that are under the influence of the EU

29.Individual country forecasts

30.Czech Republic: After intense market pressure during 2013, the telecoms market will continue to contract at a slower pace

31.Czech Republic: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

32.Czech Republic: LTE coverage will advance quickly to compensate for a slow start

33.Czech Republic: Growth in fixed broadband connections will gradually slow as the market reaches saturation

34.Poland: Fixed and mobile voice revenue contracted sharply during 2013, and this downward trend is set to continue

35.Poland: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

36.Poland: A shift from prepaid to contract subscriptions will result in consolidation of the handset base

37.Poland: Population distribution will ultimately constrain fixed broadband growth

38.Russia: Telecoms service revenue will peak in 2014, and enter a period of slow decline

39.Russia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

40.Russia: Mobile penetration is unsustainably high, and the move to data services will contribute to its decline

41.Russia: Fixed broadband competition is infrastructure-based, and will drive continued growth in the sector

42.Turkey: Revenue growth will continue to slow, and go into reverse from 2018

43.Turkey: Key trends, drivers and assumptions

44.Turkey: Mobile penetration has room for growth, but changing usage patterns will reduce ARPU

45.Turkey: Competition in the fixed broadband market is increasing, leading to higher speeds and lower ASPU

46.About the authors and Analysys Mason

47.About the authors

48.About Analysys Mason

49.Research from Analysys Mason

50.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1:   Summary of report coverage

Figure 2:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 3:   Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2019

Figure 4:   CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013–2019) and market size by total retail revenue (2019), by country, Central and Eastern Europe

Figure 5:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 and 2018

Figure 6:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, Central and Eastern Europe

Figure 7:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, Central and Eastern Europe

Figure 8:   Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2019

Figure 9:   Metrics for the 6 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2013

Figure 10:   Fixed and mobile penetration rates by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 11:   Connections by service type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2019

Figure 12:   Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 13:   Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 14:   Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 and 2019

Figure 15:   Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 16:   Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 17:   Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 18:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019

Figure 19:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2019

Figure 20:   Service revenue by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013

Figure 21:   Service revenue by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019

Figure 22:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 and 2019

Figure 23:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2009–2019

Figure 24:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2013–2019

Figure 25:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2013–2019

Figure 26:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic

Figure 27:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2009–2019

Figure 28:   Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, Czech Republic, 2009–2019

Figure 29:   Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, Czech Republic, 2009–2019

Figure 30:   Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2009–2019

Figure 31:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2009–2019

Figure 32:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2013–2019

Figure 33:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2013–2019

Figure 34:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Poland

Figure 35:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Poland, 2009–2019

Figure 36:   Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, Poland, 2009–2019

Figure 37:   Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, Poland, 2009–2019

Figure 38:   Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2009–2019

Figure 39:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2009–2019

Figure 40:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2013–2019

Figure 41:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2013–2019

Figure 42:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Russia

Figure 43:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Russia, 2009–2019

Figure 44:   Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, Russia, 2009–2019

Figure 45:   Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, Russia, 2009–2019

Figure 46:   Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2009–2019

Figure 47:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Turkey, 2009–2019

Figure 48:   Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2013–2019

Figure 49:   Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey, 2013–2019

Figure 50:   Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Turkey

Figure 51:   Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Turkey, 2009–2019

Figure 52:   Handset ARPU by service, and mobile broadband and M2M ARPU, Turkey, 2009–2019

Figure 53:   Fixed penetration rates by service type/technology, Turkey, 2009–2019

Figure 54:   Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2009–2019 

To order this report: The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: concise trends and forecasts (6 countries) 2014–2019
http://www.reportlinker.com/p02313392/The-Central-and-Eastern-Europe-telecoms-market-concise-trends-and-forecasts-6-countries-2014–2019.html

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