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ROSELAND, NJ -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 03/07/07 -- Private sector employment increased by 57,000
in February, according to today's ADP National Employment Report.
Beginning today, the ADP National Employment Report will be developed from
a significantly larger sample of anonymous payroll data, and will utilize
more advanced data filtering and seasonal adjustment procedures. The ADP
Report also has been broadened to now include additional detail on nonfarm
private employment by select industry sectors and by company size.
Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights - February Report:
-- Total employment: +57,000
-- Small businesses* +53,000
-- Medium businesses** +33,000
-- Large businesses*** -29,000
-- Goods-producing sector: -43,000
-- Service-providing sector: +100,000
Addendum:
-- Manufacturing industry: -29,000
* Small businesses represent payrolls with 1-49 employees
** Medium businesses represent payrolls with 50-499 employees
*** Large businesses represent payrolls with more than 499 employees
"Today marks an exciting milestone for the ADP National Employment Report,"
said Gary Butler, President and CEO, ADP. "We have made the ADP Report
more comprehensive with the addition of monthly employment data by industry
and company size, thus providing economists, financial professionals, and
government policy makers with new and valuable information about the
national labor market."
"Private nonfarm employment grew a modest 57,000 from January to February
of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National
Employment Report," said Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers,
LLC. "This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests employment in
February grew somewhat less than the recent three month average increase in
employment of 99,000, as estimated by the ADP National Employment Report."
Prakken added, "Continuing recent trends, employment in the
service-providing sector of the economy advanced 100,000, while employment
in the goods-producing sector, which includes the construction industry,
declined by 43,000. Employment in manufacturing industries fell by 29,000."
"Other new detail in The ADP Report shows that employment at small and
medium size businesses employing less than 500 workers grew 86,000, while
employment at larger businesses declined 29,000. Over the last six months,
small and medium size businesses accounted for most of the growth in
private nonfarm employment," said Prakken.
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| Revisions to the ADP National Employment Report(TM) |
| |
| The February 2007 ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday |
| March 7, 2007 is the first regularly released ADP Report to incorporate |
| key methodological revisions, including: (1) a larger sample of |
| payrolls; (2) improved procedures for seasonal adjustment; (3) better |
| detection of outliers; and (4) additional detail on private nonfarm |
| employment by select industry and by size of payroll. Additional details|
| on the revisions are available at www.ADPemploymentreport.com. |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was
derived from ADP data and, during the last six months of 2006, averaged
364,000 payrolls representing 22 million U.S. employees. This approximately
represents the size of the matched sample used this month.
Goods-Producing Sector
Nonfarm private employment in the goods-producing sector decreased by
43,000 in February, according to the ADP National Employment Report.
-- Small businesses -3,000
-- Medium businesses -17,000
-- Large businesses -23,000
Service-Providing Sector
Nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by
100,000 in February, according to the ADP National Employment Report.
-- Small businesses +56,000
-- Medium businesses +50,000
-- Large businesses -6,000
Company Size
Total nonfarm private employment in the United States increased in Small
and Medium businesses and decreased in Large businesses in February,
according to the ADP National Employment Report.
-- Small businesses +53,000
-- Medium businesses +33,000
-- Large businesses -29,000
Interpreting the Report
The forecasts of total nonfarm private employment, as well as nonfarm
private employment by industry sector and company size are represented as
both a monthly employment level and a monthly change in employment. The
employment level represents the number of nonfarm private jobs in the U.S.
economy at a common point in time each month. The change in monthly
employment represents the increase or decrease in employment between these
common points in time in two consecutive months.
To obtain additional information about the ADP National Employment Report
including supporting data and the schedule of future release dates, or to
subscribe to the monthly e-mail alerts and RSS feeds, please visit
www.ADPemploymentreport.com. The March 2007 ADP National Employment Report
will be released on Wednesday, April 4, 2007 at 8:15 a.m. EDT.
About the ADP National Employment Report(SM)
The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and
is maintained by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of
employment derived from an anonymous subset of 500,000 U.S. business
clients. During the last six months of 2006, this subset represented
approximately 364,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 22 million
U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data is
collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of
the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies
similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute
employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this
processing, this subset is modified to make it indicative of national
employment levels; therefore, the resulting employment changes computed for
the ADP National Employment Report are not representative of changes in
ADP's total base of U.S. business clients.
Empirical analysis performed by Macroeconomic Advisers suggests that the
ADP National Employment Report can be used to develop a forecast of "true"
employment that is superior to those resulting from consensus estimates,
survey data, or other models of employment that do not incorporate the
results of the ADP Report.
For a description of the underlying data and the statistical properties of
the series, please see "ADP National Employment Report: Development
Methodology" at http://ADPemploymentreport.com/methodology.aspx.
About ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NYSE: ADP), with nearly $9 billion in
revenues and more than 570,000 clients worldwide, is one of the largest
providers of a broad range of premier, mission-critical, cost-effective
transaction processing and information-based business solutions. Employer
Services (ES), a division of ADP, offers the widest range of HR, payroll,
and benefits administration solutions from a single source, to meet the
extensive business needs of employers worldwide. Built with more than 50
years of industry experience, ADP ES' cost-effective, easy-to-use solutions
provide superior value to companies of all sizes. Approximately 540,000
companies rely on ADP ES for unparalleled service and compliance expertise,
allowing them to focus on other core activities. For more information about
ADP ES or to contact a local ADP sales office, reach us at 1.800.225.5237
or visit the company's Web site at www.ADP.com.
About Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC (MA) has been the most trusted source for U.S.
macroeconomic forecasts and commentary, monetary and fiscal policy
analysis, and econometric modeling for over 20 years. MA has three primary
service lines: (1) Macroeconomic Modeling. MA licenses its structural
econometric model of the U.S. economy to firms who use it to produce their
own macroeconomic forecasts; (2) U.S. Economic Forecasts. MA produces
monthly economic forecasts, weekly economic commentaries, and analysis of
economic indicators; (3) Monetary Policy Insights (MPI). Directed by MA
co-founder and former Federal Reserve Board Governor Laurence Meyer, MPI
ties MA's economic forecasts to the prospective course of monetary policy
and the resulting implications for fixed-income markets. MA's clients
include leading financial service firms, nonfinancial corporations, key
policymaking agencies of the U.S. government, as well as State and Foreign
Government agencies. Additional information on Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
is available on the company's Web site, www.MacroAdvisers.com.
The ADP National Employment Report is a trademark and service mark of ADP
of North America, Inc.