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HONOLULU, HI -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 04/03/07 -- Kamakura Corporation announced today that its
monthly global index of troubled companies increased moderately in March to
6.2% of the global public company universe, compared to an index value of
5.8% in February. Even with the increase, however, the index of troubled
companies is still below the 7.3% it had hit in December. The 16-year high
in the index was 28%, reached in September 2001, the worst part of the last
recession. The index's low point was 5.4% in March-May 2006. March 2007
global credit quality was better than 97.1% of the monthly periods since
January 1990, down from 98.6% last month. The average value of the index
has been 13.6% over the last 17 years. Kamakura defines a troubled company
as a company whose default probability is in excess of 1%. The index covers
almost 18,000 public companies in 29 countries using the fourth generation
version of Kamakura's advanced credit models.
"The troubles in the housing market contributed to the rise in the troubled
company index this month," said Warren Sherman, Kamakura President and
Chief Operating Officer. "Nonetheless, the increase in the index wasn't
very great. 37% of the monthly changes in the index over the last 16 years
have been greater than this month's increase. The biggest single month
jump in the index was a 4.3% change in August 1998 in the run-up to the
last recession. In March, the number of companies with default
probabilities between 1% and 5% was 4.5% of the global public company
universe, up 0.2% from February. Companies with default probabilities
between 5 and 10% were up by 0.2% to 0.9% of the universe. The percentage
of companies with default probabilities between 10% and 20% was unchanged
in March at 0.5% of the universe. The number of global companies with
default probabilities over 20% was also unchanged, totaling 0.3% of the
universe at the end of March."
Beginning in January 2006, Kamakura has moved to a global index covering 29
countries using the annualized one month default probability produced by
the best performing credit model of the Kamakura Risk Information Services
default and correlation service. The model used is the fourth generation
Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability, a formula that bases default
predictions on a sophisticated combination of financial ratios, stock price
history, and macro-economic factors. The countries currently covered by the
index include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan,
Luxemburg, Malaysia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South
Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom,
and the United States.
Kamakura is offering free trials of its KRIS default probability and
default correlation service to qualified institutions. For more
information on Kamakura's free trial offer please contact Kamakura at
info@kamakuraco.com. More information can also be found on the Kamakura
Corporation web site www.kamakuraco.com and in a chapter from "The Basel
Handbook: A Guide for Financial Practitioners," second edition, (Michael
Ong, Editor) by Kamakura's Donald R. van Deventer, Li Li, and Xiaoming Wang
(available on www.amazon.com).
About Kamakura Corporation
Founded in 1990, Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk
management information, processing and software. Kamakura has been a
provider of daily default probabilities and default correlations for listed
companies since November 2002. Kamakura launched its business mortality
model for unlisted companies in January 2004. Kamakura is also the first
company in the world to develop and install a fully integrated enterprise
risk management system that analyzes credit risk, market risk, asset and
liability management, and transfer pricing software system. Kamakura has
served more than 160 clients ranging in size from $3 billion in assets to
$1.6 trillion in assets. Kamakura's risk management products are currently
used in 23 countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, the
Netherlands, France, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, the
Middle East, Africa, Australia, Japan, China, Korea and many other
countries in Asia.
Kamakura's research effort is led by Professor Robert Jarrow, who was named
Financial Engineer of the Year in 1997 by the International Association of
Financial Engineers. Professor Jarrow and Dr. van Deventer were both named
to the 50 member RISK Hall of Fame in December 2002. Kamakura management
has published more than 100 publications on credit risk, market risk, and
asset and liability management. Kamakura has world-wide distribution
alliances with IPS-Sendero (www.ips-sendero.com) and Unisys
(www.unisys.com), making Kamakura products available in almost every major
city around the globe.