suedunnell wrote: Hi Again - I should add my name to comment #1 above and ask that if anyone has questions, they can either post them here or ask me directly:
Sue Dunnell
PowerBuilder Product Manager
978 287 1752
sue.dunnell@sybase.com
HONOLULU, HI -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 06/04/07 -- Kamakura Corporation announced today that its
monthly global index of troubled companies increased for the third
consecutive month in May, reaching 7.1% the global public company universe.
This represents a 0.5% increase from the 6.6% level in April and a 1.3%
rise from the recent low point of 5.8% reached in February. The index's
17-year low point was 5.4% in March-May 2006. The 17-year high in the index
was 28%, reached in September 2001, the worst part of the last recession.
May 2007 global credit quality was
better than 88.4% of the monthly periods since January 1990, down from a
94.2% ranking last month. The average value of the index has been 13.6%
over the last 17 years. Kamakura defines a troubled company as a company
whose default probability is in
excess of 1%. The index now covers more than 18,500 public companies in 29
countries using the fourth generation version of Kamakura's advanced credit
models.
"Credit quality in May remained strong by historical standards but the
deterioration in credit quality since February is significant," said Warren
Sherman, Kamakura President and Chief Operating Officer. "As we said in
last month's commentary, a substantial decline in credit quality is much
more likely than an improvement from current levels. In May, the number of
companies with default probabilities between 1% and 5% was 5.0% of the
global public company universe, up 0.3% from April. Companies with default
probabilities between 5 and 10% were up by 0.1% to 1.1% of the universe.
The percentage of companies with default probabilities between 10% and
20% remained unchanged in May at 0.6% of the universe. The number of global
companies with default probabilities over 20% rose 0.1%, totaling 0.4% of
the universe at the end of May."
Beginning in January 2006, Kamakura has moved to a global index covering 29
countries using the annualized one-month default probability produced by
the best performing credit model of the Kamakura Risk Information Services
default and correlation service. The model used is the fourth generation
Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability, a formula that bases default
predictions on a sophisticated combination of financial ratios, stock price
history, and macro-economic factors. The countries currently covered by the
index include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan,
Luxemburg, Malaysia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South
Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom,
and the United States.
Kamakura is offering free trials of its KRIS default probability, default
correlation, and collateralized debt obligation pricing service to
qualified institutions. For more information on Kamakura's free trial
offer please contact Kamakura at wshermaninfo@kamakuraco.com. More
information can also be found on the Kamakura Corporation web site
www.kamakuraco.com and in a chapter from "The Basel Handbook: A Guide for
Financial Practitioners," second edition, (Michael Ong, Editor) by
Kamakura's Donald R. van Deventer, Li Li, and Xiaoming Wang (available on
www.amazon.com).
About Kamakura Corporation
Founded in 1990, Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk management information,
processing and software. Kamakura has been a provider of daily default
probabilities and default correlations for listed companies since November
2002. Kamakura launched its collateralized debt obligation (CDO) pricing
service KRIS-CDO in April 2007. Kamakura is also the first company in the
world to develop and install a fully integrated enterprise risk management
system that analyzes credit risk, market risk, asset and liability management,
transfer pricing, and capital allocation. Kamakura has served more than
160 clients ranging in size from $3 billion in assets to $1.6 trillion in
assets. Kamakura's risk management products are currently used in 23
countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands,
France, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, the Middle East,
Africa, Australia, Japan, China, Korea and many other countries in Asia.
Kamakura's research effort is led by Professor Robert Jarrow, who was named
Financial Engineer of the Year in 1997 by the International Association of
Financial Engineers. Professor Jarrow and Kamakura founder Dr. Donald R.
van Deventer were both named to the 50 member RISK Hall of Fame in December
2002. Kamakura management has published more than 100 publications on
credit risk, market risk, and asset and liability management. Kamakura has
world-wide distribution alliances with IPS-Sendero (www.ips-sendero.com)
and Unisys (www.unisys.com), making Kamakura products available in almost
every major city around the globe.