Speaking at a conference yesterday, Gordon Moore conceded that there are fundamental limits to Moore's Law - which states that the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years - and that the laws of physics will render it obsolete in about ten to fifteen years' time.
"Any physical quantity that's growing exponentially predicts a disaster," Moore told an interviewer. "It comes to some kind of an end. You can't go beyond the certain major limits."
Moore's original statement was made as long ago as 1965 and the rate has been maintained so far right into 2007.
He's stated before, in 2005 in fact, that the law cannot be sustained indefinitely. Back then he noted:
"In terms of size [of transistor] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far—but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions."
But as Wikipedia open-mindedly notes: "Then again, the law has often met obstacles that appeared insurmountable, before soon surmounting them."
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The speed section of the law is (generally) related to the size of the channel lenght, speed increases with 1/L^2 they need to fundamentally re-think the fabrication of transistors, but indeed exciting times.
As long as the speed section of his law continues then I don't think this news can be a bad thing.
We must continue to push the limits of our current hardware and ensure that we research new techniques to keep the computer revolution alive.
Quantum computers anyone?
Its good that moores law will end, it demonstrates how the human race has advanced recently and are growing into new and undiscovered areas of the world
While the specifics of his law (X*2) may end soon, I'm sure results of his theory will continue (speed). Of course there is a limit to transistors on a chip, no matter how small they may be. But, as we've seen with multiple cores, there are other options. Compared to my childhood, current technology is unbelievable. -- I remember when it was a huge deal that they could fit 88MB on a SyQuest disk! Now, for only $15 I have 1GB on my keychain. Don't give up yet Gordon. I still believe in you!
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Speaking at a conference yesterday, Gordon Moore conceded that there are fundamental limits to Moore's Law - which states that the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years - and that the laws of physics will render it obsolete in about ten to fifteen years' time.
