HP CEO Mark Hurd finally did something that Wall Street
didn’t like – he’s buying EDS, the IT infrastructure outsourcing outfit founded
in 1962 by one-time presidential hopeful and outsourcing pioneer Ross Perot,
for around $13.9 billion cash – a venture that some people think is poor use of
money better spent elsewhere.
It’s Hurd’s first really big deal and they don’t like it
that EDS has been in turnaround mode for years. They don’t like its laggard
un-IBM margins, or its puny operating profits, or that it has had and looks to
have practically zip organic growth, or that HP is paying a roughly 32.5%
premium.
And they definitely don’t like the fact that it’s not an
offshore service operation or that it could be a huge integration distraction
even given HP’s practice with Compaq in 2002 since this is about people.
They didn’t like it to the tune of sheering something like
12% off HP’s market cap between the time the deal leaked in the Wall Street
Journal late Monday and the close of business Tuesday, a few hours after it was
announced.
One analyst said during the conference call Tuesday that it
could slow down HP’s revenue growth. And Credit Suisse turned around and
downgraded HP while Goldman Sachs removed HP from its “Conviction Buy List.”
Countering the trend HP rushed out its preliminary fiscal Q2
earnings, which were due to be released Thursday, and said it would clear 80
cents (GAAP) or 87 cents (non-GAAP) on $28.3 billion, up from $25.5 billion a
year ago. Three cents better than expected.
It also upped its full-year earnings to between $3.30 and
$3.34 a share, from $3.26-$3.30, on revenues of $114.2 billion-$114.4 billion,
not $113.5 billion-$114 billion.
It won’t post all the Q2 numbers now until May 20.
Contrary to Wall Street, which started pushing the stock
back up Wednesday, HP likes the EDS acquisition idea just fine, thinking that
EDS will let HP slop up more of the services gravy that sustains IBM, a business
it says is “counter-cyclical” and can do better in bad times than in good.
With EDS, HP goes from being an also-ran number five in
services to number two, doubling service revenues from $16.6 billion to $38
billion behind IBM and its $54 billion, and ahead of Accenture and Computer
Sciences.
It also suddenly gets to be number one in applications
outsourcing at $5.5 billion in revenues.
Hurd, who defended the deal as “compelling commercially,
strategically and financially,” pointed to the ~8% growth the $750
billion-a-year services market is seeing in general and plans to wrest his
share.
He figures EDS has made a good start in taking out costs and
Hurd – you could hear it in his voice – is actively looking forward to
practicing his chief skill – which is cost-cutting – on the new acquisition.
But HP put no number on the potential savings or the charges it’ll take.
EDS is expected to be accretive to HP’s non-GAAP earnings in
fiscal ’09 and accretive to its GAAP earning in 2010.
HP intends to run EDS as a fourth business unit – retaining
its headquarters in Plano, Texas under its current CEO Ron Rittenmeyer,
reporting directly to Hurd – and “reverse merge” its own services operations
into EDS, starting with IT services. It’s holding back on consulting and
integration initially but insiders say they’ll be going over too.
Services at HP currently report to Ann Livermore, the HP
executive who lost out to Carly in the CEO race.
According to both Hurd and Rittenmeyer there’s little
overlap in service customers between HP and EDS.
“EDS – an HP company” will have 210,000 people, 140,000 from
EDS, 70,000 from HP. Hurd wouldn’t speculate on how many would survive.
Automating services is apparently expected to play a big
part in making the acquisition pay off and HP expects to move more of its own
hardware and software through the operation, which may create a problem for CA
among others like EDS partners Dell and Sun.
EDS also owns ~60% of structurally independent mPhasis in India, which
has 27,000 people going on 33,000, which may make IBM uncomfortable. It is now
up to IBM to make a counter-move. And Reuters speculates that Indian companies
like Wipro, Tata, Infosys and Cognizant may have to protect their flanks and
consolidate.
Rittenmeyer explained that EDS had – and had to have – a
third of its people in-country or in-state because of its historic business
with the government.
HP is going to pay EDS shareholders $25 a share by using $9
billion of the $10 billion it’s got in the bank and borrowing the rest. It
expects to replenish its coffers in “four or six quarters post-close,” it said.
The deal should close in the second half of this calendar
year. The $13.9 billion figure HP says it’s paying includes almost a billion in
assumed debt.
An HP insider who ought to know told us the talks between
EDS and HP date to January when EDS approached HP with a joint venture
proposition.
EDS had revenues of $22.1 billion last year. When we put out
that flash the other day saying this was happening we stupidly misread EDS’
income statement and reported its last quarter as its year. Dumb. Sorry about
that.
About Maureen O'Gara Maureen O'Gara the most read technology reporter for the past 20 years, is the Cloud Computing and Virtualization News Desk editor of SYS-CON Media. She is the publisher of famous "Billygrams" and the editor-in-chief of "Client/Server News" for more than a decade. One of the most respected technology reporters in the business, Maureen can be reached by email at maureen(at)sys-con.com or paperboy(at)g2news.com, and by phone at 516 759-7025.
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