This Mobile Forecast on Pakistan provides operational and financial
metrics for the Pakistan wireless market. We cover quarterly historical
data starting in 1Q2004 and ending in 1Q2008. We also provide four-year
forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Operators covered for
Pakistan include: Mobilink, Ufone, Paktel, Instaphone, Telenor, and
Warid Telecom. Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are
available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Notable highlights of the 3Q08 Pakistan Mobile Forecast include:
- We think that Pakistan will continue to see reductions in ARPUs over
the forecast period of 2008 - 2010. In 2010, we forecast that Pakistan
will have the average ARPU level of US$ 2.83, which is the lowest ARPU
in our coverage list of countries.
- Pakistan will see its wireless penetration level increase from a
projected 58.8% in 2008 to a forecasted 71.5% in 2010. This would make
Pakistan the most highly penetrated market in South Asia.
- The largest operators in Pakistan are Mobilink, Ufone, Telenor and
Warid Telecom; they will have market shares (by subscribers) of 36.0%,
19.4%, 21.0% and 17.0% respectively in 2010 according to our model.
- In addition, a smaller operator, Paktel, is growing rapidly. Its
market share will increase from our projected 3.9% in 2008 to a
forecasted 6.3% in 2010.
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